It's finally the day! Rate the Iowa caucuses (Iowa prediction megathread)

[redjohn]

With just about a week left, rate the Iowa caucuses. I'd say tilt Sanders/tossup to be safe, even though my gut says lean Sanders.

[redjohn]

More polling out of IA seems to confirm the current tilt Sanders/lean Sanders rating on this race. I could see Biden winning, too, though.

[redjohn]

Sticking with tossup/tilt Bernie. Good chance Bernie wins, but there's also a chance Biden wins. I think it's extremely likely though that Bernie either wins the most delegates or a plurality of the first vote... Biden still has a chance, and so does Buttigieg. Biden needs to turn out those older voters and get Klobuchar's supporters to switch to him when she fails to meet viability in precincts. That's how he wins.

Bernie needs a huge youth turnout, a group that overwhelmingly supports him. I think he has more youth support than polls show (last time he got 80 something percent in Iowa with young voters).

[redjohn]

Welp, was hoping for the DMR poll to base final predictions on. Guess we have no real confidence going in! Tossup/tilt Sanders. Hoping for a strong win but expecting a very close race.

[redjohn]

First round:

Bernie Sanders: 26%
Joe Biden: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 15%

Amy Klobuchar: 11%

Second round:

Bernie Sanders: 29%
Joe Biden: 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%

[redjohn]

So here are the total ratings from this poll:

Tilt/Lean/Likely Sanders: 80%
Tilt/Lean/Likely Buttigieg: 3%
Tilt/Lean/Likely Biden: 7%
Tilt Warren: 1%
Tossup: 8%

Total tossups/tilt: 49%