Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[redjohn]

Kelda Roys wins the Wispolitcs Democratic Party Convention Straw Poll

Results:

Ballots cast: 800

– Governor

Total votes: 789

Kelda Roys: 184
Mahlon Mitchell: 93
Tony Evers: 91
Andy Gronik: 89
Dana Wachs: 89
Kathleen Vinehout: 83
Mike McCabe: 81
Matt Flynn: 71
Josh Pade: 7
Paul Soglin: 1 (lol)

— Lieutenant Governor

Total votes: 763

Mandela Barnes: 617
Kurt Kober: 146

— Secretary of State

Total votes: 728

Doug La Follette: 385
Arvina Marie Martin: 343

— State Treasurer

Total votes: 704

Sarah Godlewski: 530
Cynthia Kaump: 109
Dawn Marie Sass: 65

Really like her, but not sure how she'd do against Walker (or as Governor).

[redjohn]

Proudly voted absentee for Mitchell today.

[redjohn]

Mitchell will take this race to Walker and win😀

Mitchell hands the race to Walker on a silver platter. Guaranteed loss if he's nominated.

Disagreed. Mitchell doesn't have the scandals that Evers has; look at the headlines for Evers right now. Mitchell is a newer, younger face that will actually turn people out. Evers is a snooze.

[redjohn]

I actually think Mitchell would do just as good as Evers for one reason. AA turnout. WI did not flip for Trump just because of the Driftless and WWC, though it did help, in fact, Trump got less votes there than Mitt did 4 years ago. Rather, it was due to a monumental decrease in D numbers.
2012(nearest thousand)
D-1,621,000
R-1,408,000
2016
D-1,383,000(-238,000)
R-1,405,000(-3,000)
One of the reasons for this was AA turnout in the cities of Milwaukee and Madison. This chart shows this phenomenon.



Mitchell would be able to get these voters out and tip the scale in the Ds favor. Its also important ton note his platform appeals to union workers and WWC, and so he could be seen as a hero for them, especially if he highlights his roots. Though I dont think he wins the primary(it appears Evers has that), he would still be a top tier candidate.

Exactly. However, I'd be very hesitant to say Evers is likely to win the primary. The most recent poll had Evers at 25%, with 47% undecided (counting out candidates who have dropped out). Evers is remarkably uninspiring and dull, and Mitchell is not. If Mitchell makes the final push he needs in the final month, there's no reason he can't win.

[redjohn]

No surprises in the debate. Was pleasantly surprised by Evers, but still backing Mitchell. Pade came off as really inexperienced, Vinehout didn't do too well, and Flynn was bagged down by the archdiocese scandal, whether that has merit or not. Roys seemed pretty unclear on the prison question, but she came off poised. I really like Soglin, but his association with a certain Communist dictator would eliminate any chance of victory against Walker.

[redjohn]

Paul Soglin will not be running for reelection for Mayor of Madison:

https://twitter.com/WiStateJournal/status/1019286917823782913

Wow. He's served as mayor on and off since 1973. Assuming this is his last term.

[redjohn]

Walker can withstand the Democratic wave, since Milwaukee and Madison don't have many Latinos as other states might have. That's a reason why, Trump did so well in MI, PA and WI. But more WWC in WI.

100x yep. 2018 DNC (and supporting arms) has no clue how to win states outside the coastal bubbles.

If the Dems run on an old school labor message, they have a chance of ousting Walker.  If they run a boilerplate campaign that sounds like something the national party would create, Walker will win again.

Just saying Mills and Tony Evers arent the charismatic candidate like Whitmer and Grisham are.

Bingo. Evers is a terrible candidate, and if he is the nominee, this race will be difficult.

[redjohn]

Really like Roys, but she's not winning against Walker. I'm still strongly supporting Mitchell, but I'm coming to terms with the fact that Evers will likely be the nominee (despite the fact that I only one Democrats who is planning on voting for him; the polls can't all be wrong, right?). He's extremely uninspiring but he doesn't seem gaffe-prone and has the background of being State Superintendent going for him, which will be a good contrast to Walker's anti-education agenda.

If Democrats want the candidate with the best shot at winning, though, it's Mitchell. I worry there's a really good chance Milwaukee craters even further in turnout, and Mitchell will prevent a sizable chunk of that crater, something no other candidate will be able to do.

[redjohn]

Mitchell hitting Milwaukee-area airwaves hard. Not sure whether the final push will be enough to push him past the others, but this race is going to be close. My guess is that Evers wins by a small margin, with Mitchell the runner-up. It all depends on whether Milwaukee flexes some of its muscle, which seems doubtful if one looks at the 2016 general results as well as this spring's election turnout (relative to the rest of the state).

[redjohn]

Agreed on this being a tossup race. The interesting part about this race is that it's the first in Wisconsin since 2006 with both the Governor and Senator on the ballot; in 2006, incumbent Dem Senator Kohl won re-election by a landslide (38 pts) while incumbent Dem Governor Doyle won his race by seven points.

Unlike 2006, I severely doubt there will be many Baldwin-Walker voters, and with polls consistently showing Baldwin with healthy leads over Vukmir, I think the race is slowly swaying in Evers's favor. Had Nicholson won the GOP primary, people might've associated the WI Republican ticket with an anti-establishment Trumpist agenda (which would've excited more conservative-leaning voters), but Vukmir screams cold establishment and won't excite voters in the state at all. Republicans will vote for Walker, but with this being his fourth election, there are bound to be many past voters who aren't too excited to vote for him a fourth time.

[redjohn]

Agreed on this being a tossup race. The interesting part about this race is that it's the first in Wisconsin since 2006 with both the Governor and Senator on the ballot; in 2006, incumbent Dem Senator Kohl won re-election by a landslide (38 pts) while incumbent Dem Governor Doyle won his race by seven points.

Unlike 2006, I severely doubt there will be many Baldwin-Walker voters, and with polls consistently showing Baldwin with healthy leads over Vukmir, I think the race is slowly swaying in Evers's favor. Had Nicholson won the GOP primary, people might've associated the WI Republican ticket with an anti-establishment Trumpist agenda (which would've excited more conservative-leaning voters), but Vukmir screams cold establishment and won't excite voters in the state at all. Republicans will vote for Walker, but with this being his fourth election, there are bound to be many past voters who aren't too excited to vote for him a fourth time.

How much do you think Baldwin would have to win by to drag Evers over the finish line?  We're talking barely dragging Evers...not by the 5-10 point average that Evers seems to have in these polls.

My guess is a greater than five-point win for Baldwin makes it very likely that Evers also wins. Unless Vukmir or Evers have a terrible, campaign-jolting scandal revealed, it's hard to imagine Baldwin winning by over five points while simultaneously seeing Walker win re-election.

Also, there won't be any third party candidates in the Senate election, making the Baldwin-Evers correlation even stronger.

[redjohn]

This race is going to be made in the final two months, so I'll be very interested to see whether Evers campaigns on his vision for Wisconsin or merely against Scott Walker. The latter will result in a likely loss.

As I said during the primary to people who believed Evers was the best candidate against Walker (and who would likely beat him), Evers is not well known to most Wisconsinites. That's why this period right now is so important; if he's defined by this teacher porn non-scandal, it's over. Democratic donors should be blanketing the state with ads and information on Evers's pro-education background and plan. If Democrats can get in front of Evers and define him as a pro-rural Wisconsin education candidate, things will look better in November. If Evers goes on the attack against Walker without creating a positive name for himself, this (again) is likely over. Tossup.

[redjohn]

Evers raises over 1$ million in just 8 days

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-raises-million-over-days-in-race-against-scott/article_ea7ac2bb-5b51-5751-8ee5-ce6a008b384b.html


Yeah, starting to think that Evers may be just a bit favoured. Just a bit.

This really doesn't mean much at all. Many donors were waiting until there was a Democratic nominee out of the huge field, and now they're donating. Evers is still far behind Walker in terms of money, but in my opinion using donation stats to argue that a candidate is favored isn't useful.

[redjohn]

I've been pretty bearish on Evers's chances for this entire cycle, and I thought for a long time that Walker had the slight upper hand, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I'm very confident Evers wins today. There is no world in which Baldwin wins by the margin she will win by today and Walker still slides by. Anecdotally, there is not a single voter in my family or friend group who voted for the Democrat in 2014 and plans on switching their vote for Walker this election. There are, however, several family members who voted for Walker in 2014 and will be voting for Evers today. I've heard the same story from friends across the state.

Walker's Presidential run, fatigue surrounding his leadership, Trump's unpopularity, and general disapproval of current leadership will likely be enough to hold Walker back from the finish line this time. 

is there a chance Walker slides by? Sure. But it's more likely that Evers wins by over five points than Walker winning by one.

[redjohn]

Looks like 4-6 point victory for Lisa is probable right now. Fingers crossed.

[redjohn]

Wow!

But now that’s the majority of the county. I’m not sure the rest will be enough to fest vote from elsewhere.

Still, with almost 100% of WOW counties reporting, Dane still having 33% to report is something for Lisa to feel good about.