Post-Obama - A Different 2012 (Gameplay)

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Post-Obama
A Different 2012
an election game

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Turn One

Headlines:

Libyan rebels postpone attack on Qaddafi stronghold in show of confidence
With Libyan Civil War in full swing, rebels attempt to avoid a long fight

Tropical depression forms in Gulf; coastal states brace for storm
Governor Bobby Jindal declares a state of emergency for Louisiana

In blow to White House, Republicans win in an upset to replace Weiner
In an election to replace Anthony Weiner, Republicans picked up the seat with a shock 51.7% of the vote

2012 campaign starts off with a bang
Many candidates declare, including current frontrunners Jeb Bush and Joe Biden

RCP Job Approval Average (President Obama):

Disapprove: 56%
Approve: 40%
Unsure: 4%

RCP National Average:

Generic Republican: 42%
Generic Democrat: 39%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 3%
Undecided: 16%

RCP Republican Average:

Jeb Bush: 22%
Chris Christie: 20%
Mike Huckabee: 14%
Rudy Guiliani: 11%
Donald Trump: 9%
Jim DeMint: 8%
Michelle Bachmann: 5%
Adam Carolla: 2%
Undecided: 8%

With the race now in full swing, candidates declared left and right for the Republican nomination, some heavily speculated and some surprises. However, as polling entered September, three clear groups formed. The first, the group of governors, including Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, holds the current candidates for frontrunner of the nomination. Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida, was not heavily speculated to join the trail, however, once he made his announcement, he shot up in the polls, complicating Chris Christie's path to frontrunner. While it is still early, it can almost be assured if both stick the campaign out to the end, this campaign will be a long and close fight for the nomination.

The second group, containing a mix of formidable candidates in the form of Mike Huckabee, Rudy Guiliani, Donald Trump, and Jim DeMint, contains candidates that have significant potential in this race, and depending on the next few weeks, could make a dash in the polls and could replace one (or both) of the governors for frontrunner given a good campaign. Mike Huckabee, initially one of the highest-speculated candidates to run, enters September with a solid 14%, certainly a formidable place to start his campaign. Rudy Guiliani, a central contender in the 2008 race, captures 11% in the RCP average, however, his campaign has significant potential if his 2008 run is to serve as a guide. Donald Trump and Jim DeMint, both surprise contenders in this race, have both made captivating appeals to their bases, and with 9% and 8% respectively, it seems to have worked.

Finally, we have candidates Michelle Bachmann and Adam Carolla, who both have low national profiles and have only 5% and 2% respectively in the RCP primary average; however, it is unknown what potential these candidates have, and if either (or both) are apt to campaigning on the trail, an upset could certainly happen.

RCP Democratic Average:

Joe Biden: 40%
Michelle Obama: 35%
Russ Feingold: 9%
Phil Bredesen: 4%
Undecided: 12%

With the party scrambling to find solid contenders for the nomination after Obama's shock announcement, the Vice President and the First Lady both emerged to take the mantle of frontrunner. While Biden currently holds that title with 40% of the poll, both Biden and Obama are fighting for the same electorate, which could cause a close race for the nomination in the coming weeks, but additionally, potentially another candidate to come from behind to become the nominee with a fractured Obama coalition.

This candidate may come in the form of Russ Feingold or Phil Bredesen, both candidates with considerable potential but not without their limitations, Russ Feingold being relatively unknown outside his geographic home, and Phil Bredesen being considerably more conservative than the mainstream Democratic Party after one term of Obama. However, these candidates (or a new candidate) have the potential to snag the nomination if either Biden or Obama can not carve out their own ideological bases.

State polling (Republicans):

Iowa:

Jeb Bush: 20%
Mike Huckabee: 19%
Chris Christie: 18%
Jim DeMint: 11%
Michelle Bachmann: 8%
Rudy Guiliani: 7%
Donald Trump: 6%
Adam Carolla: 4%
Undecided: 7%

New Hampshire:

Chris Christie: 23%
Jeb Bush: 18%
Rudy Guiliani: 16%
Donald Trump: 12%
Mike Huckabee: 11%
Jim DeMint: 6%
Adam Carolla: 6%
Michelle Bachmann: 3%
Undecided: 5%

South Carolina:

Jeb Bush: 21%
Mike Huckabee: 19%
Chris Christie: 15%
Jim DeMint: 15%
Michelle Bachmann: 9%
Rudy Guiliani: 7%
Donald Trump: 6%
Adam Carolla: 2%
Undecided: 6%

Florida:

Jeb Bush: 31%
Mike Huckabee: 17%
Chris Christie: 14%
Jim DeMint: 9%
Donald Trump: 8%
Rudy Guiliani: 6%
Michelle Bachmann: 7%
Adam Carolla: 3%
Undecided: 5%

Nevada:

Jeb Bush: 20%
Chris Christie: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 15%
Donald Trump: 14%
Rudy Guiliani: 11%
Adam Carolla: 8%
Jim DeMint: 4%
Michelle Bachmann: 3%
Undecided: 6%

State polling (Democrats):

Iowa:

Joe Biden: 38%
Michelle Obama: 36%
Russ Feingold: 12%
Phil Bredesen: 10%
Undecided: 4%

New Hampshire:

Joe Biden: 41%
Michelle Obama: 34%
Russ Feingold: 17%
Phil Bredesen: 3%
Undecided: 5%

Nevada:

Joe Biden: 43%
Michelle Obama: 32%
Russ Feingold: 15%
Phil Bredesen: 4%
Undecided: 6%

South Carolina:

Michelle Obama: 42%
Joe Biden: 33%
Phil Bredesen: 12%
Russ Feingold: 4%
Undecided: 9%

Florida:

Joe Biden: 38%
Michelle Obama: 38%
Phil Bredesen: 9%
Russ Feingold: 6%
Undecided: 9%

Moderator's notes: This turn will last until Sunday night, at 11:59:59 PM Central Time. Make sure to PM me ASAP if you need an extension, preferably after you read this sentence. Extensions will be given for the requester and the requester only, not for the field at large, so if you need an extension, PM me.

There will be no debate during this turn, however, there will be one in Turn Two. You are allowed two endorsements per turn, so make sure to PM me your endorsements so that I can approve of them, and endorsements are first-come, first-serve.

This turn will last the month of September. Make sure to schedule your campaign accordingly.

Messaging is key! This turn will be all about setting up your ground game and building your coalition, so make sure to write your speeches/schedule accordingly! Speaking of which...

A schedule is required. You can post 20 speeches or no speeches, but what is required for you to post is your schedule. It doesn't have to be detailed, just give me a short description of each day's (or week's) events.

Advertisements: if you poll more than 15% nationally, you may run two advertisements. If you poll between 10% and 15%, you may run one advertisement, and if you poll below 10%, build up your campaign so that next round you can have a shot at running advertisements!

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TRUMP’s RESPONSE TO ADAM CAROLLA

Asshole Adam Carolla attacked me, saying I would start a war with Libya. I have no interest in going to war with Libya. And tell me something: did y’all know this man is an atheist? Who would want an atheist to be president? He compared me to Crooked Hillary and Low Energy Jeb! Do I seem like any of those? Together we will Make America Great Again! God Bless You All!

Carolla responds to Trump on Social Media
Mr Trump prove to us again that he is not qualified to be commander in Chief.  He attacked me and attack my philosophical beliefs rather than the issues in hand.
 
This man can’t be our nominee

I'll just politely ask NOTTYLER to refrain from using language such as the one used in these posts.

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Obamacare repeal speech in Des Moines, Iowa

Obamacare has been a disaster to this nation, it only helps to intensify a problem that the government created with excessive intervention on the healthcare industry, we need to understand that goverment intervention only causes more problems and it wouldn't be different on the healthcare industry! Obamacare only helps to increase the problem with expensive premiums and non affordable health care and I will seek to repeal Obamacare, so we can solve this problem for once and for all!

To solve the problem with healthcare, I'll seek to get government out of the issue and let the private sector take care of the problem, the government shown itself inefficient to solve it, so we will let the private sector to most of the job, and to make it easier to them to solve this, I'll repeal Obamacare and similar laws and veto every proposal to bring some second version of it to the country!

Quick note: Obamacare never got passed, as by the time he wanted to pass it Republicans already had a 54-46 majority in the Senate and a majority in the House and blocked its passing.

If any of you have questions as to what is different from OTL, you can ask in the OOC thread or PM me.

Edit: I won't count this against you, or say anything like:

"Jim DeMint goes off about imaginary health system; appears insane – is he fit to be president?"

you could just make a new speech.

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Turn Two

October 1st-October 31st

Headlines:

Occupy movement sweeps U.S., other nations
Movement focused on "shedding light" on income inequality, lack of democracy takes world by storm

U.S. halts UNESCO funding after Palestine vote
President Obama pulled funding for UNESCO after the UN voted to make Palestine a full member

First female candidate begins campaign for Egypt's highest office
Buthaina Kamel, the first female candidate for President, began her campaign after filing to enter

2012 campaign tightens
After spirited campaigning, Joe Biden, Jeb Bush now no longer guaranteed the nomination

RCP Job Approval Average (President Obama):

Disapprove: 55%
Approve: 41%
Unsure: 4%

RCP National Average:

Generic Republican: 45%
Generic Democrat: 40%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 4%
Undecided: 11%

RCP Republican Average:

Jeb Bush: 21%
Chris Christie: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 15%
Rudy Guiliani: 12%
Jim DeMint: 11%
Michelle Bachmann: 8%
Donald Trump: 7%
Adam Carolla: 3%
Undecided: 4%

After a spirited month of campaigning, the race for the Republican nomination has now tightened, with the former three groups vying for the nomination now melded into one, with Jeb Bush now only holding a 2 percent edge over his closest opponent, Chris Christie. Both were marginally damaged by Bush's ad attacking Christie's "liberal" values; with Christie taking the hit for perceived liberalism and Bush being attacked for hypocrisy.

Just behind Bush and Christie is a group of credible threats to Bush and Christie, with Huckabee, which is now at 15 percent in the average after a good month of campaigning, leading the pack. Just behind Huckabee are Guiliani, DeMint, and Bachmann, three candidates who started off September with modest rankings in the average and leave with healthy totals of 12, 11, and 8 percent respectively after passionate campaigns from each of the three candidates.

Behind Bachmann is Donald Trump, who was originally rumored to be a credible contender for frontrunner; however, he marginally damaged his campaigns after a series of attacks he waged on other candidates, namely Carolla, who may have marginally benefited from the attacks. While the race for the Republican nomination is now all but a toss-up, one thing is for certain: this race is shaping up to be a long and competitive race.

RCP Democratic Average:

Joe Biden: 39%
Michelle Obama: 37%
Russ Feingold: 11%
Phil Bredesen: 5%
Undecided: 8%

In the Democratic field, not much initially appears to have changed from September; however, a closer look at the details reveals there has been a significant shift in the race for the nomination, but not quite enough to register in the total.

There is no longer a clear frontrunner for the nomination, with Obama's barrage of campaigning boosting her in reach of Biden, with 37 percent of the vote, up two percent from last months' poll. However, a more interesting figure: Feingold and Bredesen are starting to cut into Biden and Obama's totals respectively across the nation. While currently not apparent in the national polling, over the next few weeks, state polling may reveal that these two wildcards may prove to serve as challenges to the path to the nomination.

Additionally, internal Democratic polling reveals there to be a significant gap in enthusiasm for the two leading the pack, with Obama's supporters quite a bit more enthusiastic than Biden's after a month of campaigning. While this may or may not serve as a factor in the end result, if not addressed, this could affect the vitality of Biden's path to the nomination.

Endorsements:

Biden: Jeanne Shaheen, Tom Harkin
Bredesen: Blanche Lincoln, Karl Dean
Feingold: Sherrod Brown, Barbara Boxer
Obama: Tom Vilsack, Dave Lobesack

Bachmann: Carly Fiorina, Kristi Noem
Bush: Nikki Haley, Kelly Ayotte
Carolla: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ron Paul
Christie: Nancy Reagan, Mitt Romney
DeMint: Tim Scott, Jim DeMint
Giuliani: George Pataki, David Vitter
Huckabee: Marco Rubio, Chuck Norris
Trump: Orrin Hatch, Kid Rock

Bloomberg: Joe Lieberman, Olympia Snowe

Moderator's notes: This turn will last until Thursday night, at 11:59:59 PM CDT. Make sure to PM me ASAP if you need an extension, preferably after you read this sentence.

There will be a debate during this turn, posted right after this post and state polling.

You are allowed two endorsements per turn, so make sure to PM me your endorsements so that I can approve of them, and endorsements are first-come, first-serve.

This turn will last the month of October. Make sure to schedule your campaign accordingly.

A schedule is required. You can post 20 speeches or no speeches, but what is required for you to post is your schedule. It doesn't have to be detailed, just give me a short description of each day's (or week's) events.

Advertisements: if you poll more than 15% nationally, you may run two advertisements. If you poll between 10% and 15%, you may run one advertisement, and if you poll below 10%, build up your campaign so that next round you can have a shot at running advertisements!

(Nationally: ad thresholds are 5% for one ad, and 7.5% for two.)

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State polling (Republicans):

Iowa:

Jeb Bush: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 18%
Chris Christie: 15%
Jim DeMint: 13%
Michelle Bachmann: 10%
Rudy Guiliani: 10%
Donald Trump: 5%
Adam Carolla: 4%
Undecided: 7%

New Hampshire:

Chris Christie: 21%
Jeb Bush: 19%
Rudy Guiliani: 18%
Mike Huckabee: 10%
Donald Trump: 8%
Jim DeMint: 7%
Adam Carolla: 7%
Michelle Bachmann: 6%
Undecided: 4%

South Carolina:

Jeb Bush: 21%
Mike Huckabee: 20%
Jim DeMint: 17%
Chris Christie: 14%
Michelle Bachmann: 11%
Rudy Guiliani: 6%
Donald Trump: 5%
Adam Carolla: 1%
Undecided: 5%

Florida:

Jeb Bush: 30%
Mike Huckabee: 19%
Chris Christie: 12%
Jim DeMint: 12%
Michelle Bachmann: 9%
Rudy Guiliani: 6%
Donald Trump: 5%
Adam Carolla: 3%
Undecided: 4%

Nevada:

Jeb Bush: 21%
Chris Christie: 15%
Rudy Guiliani: 14%
Mike Huckabee: 11%
Donald Trump: 10%
Adam Carolla: 9%
Jim DeMint: 5%
Michelle Bachmann: 4%
Undecided: 11%

State polling (Democrats):

Iowa:

Michelle Obama: 37%
Joe Biden: 36%
Russ Feingold: 11%
Phil Bredesen: 11%
Undecided: 5%

New Hampshire:

Joe Biden: 40%
Michelle Obama: 35%
Russ Feingold: 19%
Phil Bredesen: 2%
Undecided: 4%

Nevada:

Joe Biden: 41%
Michelle Obama: 33%
Russ Feingold: 17%
Phil Bredesen: 3%
Undecided: 6%

South Carolina:

Michelle Obama: 43%
Joe Biden: 32%
Phil Bredesen: 14%
Russ Feingold: 3%
Undecided: 8%

Florida:

Michelle Obama: 39%
Joe Biden: 38%
Phil Bredesen: 11%
Russ Feingold: 5%
Undecided: 7%

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First Republican Presidential Debate

Ames, Iowa
Hosted by Fox News

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In addition, you may respond to any of the candidates debating alongside you in this debate (not the other party's debate), but please keep all responses brief.

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First Democratic Presidential Debate

Goffstown, New Hampshire
Hosted by CNN

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In addition, you may respond to any of the candidates debating alongside you in this debate (not the other party's debate), but please keep all responses brief.

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(btw I like how Christie has done literally nothing and he's still rising in the polls in New Hampshire. Will post debate answers soon.)

He was sick, so I didn't penalize him. I have reasons for what I do.

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Governor Haley announces surprise run:

Nikki Haley, the Governor of South Carolina elected only months ago in the midterm elections, surprisingly announced in a press conference today that she was entertaining the race for the Republican nomination. While most members of the press who attended the press conference believed the new governor would be making a policy announcement as Governor, most in the room were stunned with her announcement, especially with the fact that Haley endorsed former Governor Bush for the nomination only two months ago.

While Haley will certainly have an uphill path for the nomination, considering how unknown she is with the Republican base, and how quickly she must set up her ground game and put together her coalition, a New York Times flash poll reveals an interesting result:

New York Times, Flash Poll
Republican Primary

Jeb Bush: 21%
Chris Christie: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 14%
Rudy Guiliani: 12%
Jim DeMint: 10%
Michelle Bachmann: 7%
Nikki Haley: 6%
Donald Trump: 4%
Adam Carolla: 3%
Undecided: 4%

While 6 percent may seem low, it is a strikingly good result for a little-known candidate, and shows much promise for her campaign into the future. Interestingly, Bachmann's 7 percent and Haley's 6 percent combined represent one of the greatest totals for female candidates in the Republican Party primary. No matter Haley's total; however, only her campaign over the next few weeks will determine how close she can get to the coveted position of frontrunner.

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Governor Haley announces surprise run:

Nikki Haley, the Governor of South Carolina elected only months ago in the midterm elections, surprisingly announced in a press conference today that she was entertaining the race for the Republican nomination. While most members of the press who attended the press conference believed the new governor would be making a policy announcement as Governor, most in the room were stunned with her announcement, especially with the fact that Haley endorsed former Governor Bush for the nomination only two months ago.

While Haley will certainly have an uphill path for the nomination, considering how unknown she is with the Republican base, and how quickly she must set up her ground game and put together her coalition, a New York Times flash poll reveals an interesting result:

New York Times, Flash Poll
Republican Primary

Jeb Bush: 21%
Chris Christie: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 14%
Rudy Guiliani: 12%
Jim DeMint: 10%
Michelle Bachmann: 7%
Nikki Haley: 6%
Donald Trump: 4%
Adam Carolla: 3%
Undecided: 4%

While 6 percent may seem low, it is a strikingly good result for a little-known candidate, and shows much promise for her campaign into the future. Interestingly, Bachmann's 7 percent and Haley's 6 percent combined represent one of the greatest totals for female candidates in the Republican Party primary. No matter Haley's total; however, only her campaign over the next few weeks will determine how close she can get to the coveted position of frontrunner.

Sorry I haven't been active lately, but does this mean the endorsement is rescinded?

Yes. Also, make sure to post OOC in the OOC thread.

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Turn Three

November 1st - November 30th

Headlines:

Occupy movement continues, turns violent in Oakland
Now months into the growing worldwide movement against income and democratic inequality, the protests turned violent as riots formed in Oakland

In general election, voters reject some conservative measures, pass others
The November 8th general election saw some conservative measures fail by slim margins, but the hallmark anti-abortion measure passed by a 4 point margin in Mississippi

Supercommittee fails to agree on deficit reduction plan
Congressional committee in charge of finding $1.2 trillion in deficit reductions failed to agree on what programs to cut after more than 10 weeks of meeting

2012 campaign continues with changing fields of candidates
Obama becomes the frontrunner after a bad month for Biden, on the Republican side, two candidates suspend their campaigns

RCP Job Approval Average (President Obama):

Disapprove: 54%
Approve: 42%
Unsure: 4%

RCP National Average:

Generic Republican: 44%
Generic Democrat: 40%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 6%
Undecided: 10%

RCP Republican Average:

Jeb Bush: 20%
Mike Huckabee: 18%
Rudy Guiliani: 14%
Jim DeMint: 13%
Michelle Bachmann: 11%
Nikki Haley: 8%
Adam Carolla: 2%
Undecided: 14%

With the campaign now wearing on further, the first two candidates to suspend their campaigns have come in the form of Chris Christie and Donald Trump. While Trump's withdrawal was expected, after a particularly bad debate performance during which he made questionable comments about fellow candidates, Christie's was not, leaving many of his supporters to return to the undecided column. After winning the debate, Mike Huckabee saw his stock increase greatly, especially reflected in his rise from 15 percent to 18 percent, putting Jeb Bush's frontrunner spot in play.

After many of the candidates have begun to find their niche in the large Republican field, formerly lower-tier candidates such as Jim DeMint and Michelle Bachmann have risen to respectable places at 13 and 11 percent, respectively. Newcomer to the race Nikki Haley also saw her fortunes increase over the month, with her polling average raised to 8 percent by the end of October. Haley's entry has had the biggest effect in South Carolina; however, making a three-way race between Bush, Huckabee, and DeMint into a four-way race. This next month may be the deciding factor for who is able to be in position to clinch the nomination, with now just over two months to go to the first primaries.

RCP Democratic Average:

Michelle Obama: 40%
Joe Biden: 37%
Russ Feingold: 13%
Phil Bredesen: 5%
Undecided: 5%

With former frontrunner Joe Biden enduring a particularly bad month, from his now-infamous "last name" remarks at the debate (which were criticized by the media as being "sexist"), to his criticism of Bredesen in the days after which, while boosting his support in some northern, more liberal states, it hurt his campaign in southern states, which perceived his message as an attack on more centrist and conservative values. This, along with Michelle Obama's relentless campaigning, allowed Obama to clinch the frontrunner spot in the November RCP average.

While it should be of note that Biden's campaign has been marginally damaged, according to internal Democratic party polling, the infrastructure for a frontrunner campaign is still existent among most of Biden's states, which, if utilized, could allow Biden to reclaim the top spot in polling. Along with Obama, Feingold also benefited from Biden's drop in polling, raising his national average by two percent. Bredesen was additionally able to expand his campaign in the more conservative southern states; however, this was not able to register in the national average.

Endorsements:

Biden: Jeanne Shaheen, Tom Harkin; Beau Biden, Bill Nelson
Bredesen: Blanche Lincoln, Karl Dean; Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand
Feingold: Sherrod Brown, Barbara Boxer; Deval Patrick, Wesley Clark
Obama: Tom Vilsack, Dave Loebsack; Oprah Winfrey, Hillary Clinton

Bachmann: Carly Fiorina, Kristi Noem; Phil Bryant, Steve King
Bush: Dan Quayle, Kelly Ayotte; John McCain, Rick Perry
Carolla: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ron Paul; N/A
Christie: Nancy Reagan, Mitt Romney; N/A
DeMint: Tim Scott, Bobby Jindal; Buddy Roemer, Lindsey Graham
Giuliani: George Pataki, David Vitter; Mark Kirk, Scott Walker
Haley: N/A; Sarah Palin, Scott Brown
Huckabee: Marco Rubio, Chuck Norris; Haley Barbour, Herman Cain
Trump: Orrin Hatch, Kid Rock; Bob McDonnell, N/A

Bloomberg: Joe Lieberman, Olympia Snowe; Andrew Cuomo, Tom Foley

Endorsements for candidates who have dropped out (denoted by a strike-through) are up for grabs. Semicolons denote turns.

Moderator's notes: This turn will last until Tuesday night, at 11:59:59 PM CDT. Make sure to PM me ASAP if you need an extension, preferably after you read this sentence. There will not be a debate during this turn.

You are allowed two endorsements per turn, so make sure to PM me your endorsements so that I can approve of them, and endorsements are first-come, first-serve.

This turn will last the month of November. Make sure to schedule your campaign accordingly.

A schedule is required. You can post 20 speeches or no speeches, but what is required for you to post is your schedule. It doesn't have to be detailed, just give me a short description of each day's (or week's) events.

Advertisements: if you poll more than 15% nationally, you may run two advertisements. If you poll between 10% and 15%, you may run one advertisement, and if you poll below 10%, build up your campaign so that next round you can have a shot at running advertisements!

(For the general election: ad thresholds are 5% for one ad, and 7.5% for two.)

[wxtransit]

State polling (Republicans):

Iowa:

Jeb Bush: 20%
Mike Huckabee: 20%
Jim DeMint: 18%
Michelle Bachmann: 16%
Rudy Guiliani: 13%
Nikki Haley: 8%
Adam Carolla: 2%
Undecided: 3%

New Hampshire:

Rudy Guiliani: 21%
Jeb Bush: 20%
Mike Huckabee: 15%
Jim DeMint: 9%
Michelle Bachmann: 7%
Adam Carolla: 5%
Nikki Haley: 4%
Undecided: 19%

South Carolina:

Mike Huckabee: 22%
Jeb Bush: 21%
Jim DeMint: 19%
Nikki Haley: 17%
Michelle Bachmann: 12%
Rudy Guiliani: 6%
Adam Carolla: 1%
Undecided: 2%

Florida:

Jeb Bush: 28%
Mike Huckabee: 21%
Jim DeMint: 17%
Michelle Bachmann: 14%
Rudy Guiliani: 9%
Nikki Haley: 8%
Adam Carolla: 2%
Undecided: 1%

Nevada:

Jeb Bush: 21%
Rudy Guiliani: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 14%
Jim DeMint: 7%
Michelle Bachmann: 6%
Adam Carolla: 6%
Nikki Haley: 4%
Undecided: 23%

State polling (Democrats):

Iowa:

Michelle Obama: 39%
Joe Biden: 36%
Russ Feingold: 12%
Phil Bredesen: 11%
Undecided: 3%

New Hampshire:

Joe Biden: 38%
Michelle Obama: 36%
Russ Feingold: 23%
Phil Bredesen: 1%
Undecided: 2%

Nevada:

Joe Biden: 39%
Michelle Obama: 34%
Russ Feingold: 20%
Phil Bredesen: 4%
Undecided: 3%

South Carolina:

Michelle Obama: 48%
Joe Biden: 30%
Phil Bredesen: 15%
Russ Feingold: 2%
Undecided: 5%

Florida:

Michelle Obama: 40%
Joe Biden: 38%
Phil Bredesen: 12%
Russ Feingold: 5%
Undecided: 5%

[wxtransit]

Debate summary

First Republican Debate



Winner: Mike Huckabee

With a packed stage of excellent debaters, Huckabee's performance was regarded by many as the best of the night, among many other excellent performances from Jeb Bush, Rudy Guiliani, Jim DeMint, and Michelle Bachmann. Huckabee hit all the right notes in his speech by laying out specifics for many of his answers; something lacking in others' performances. Additionally, he successfully presented himself as a unifier of the party, and received a boost in polling shortly after the debate.

Another notable performance, however not for the same reasons, was Donald Trump's. Effectively ending his campaign by making controversial statements about the other candidates and not responding in enough detail to the questions, Trump sank to a low in polling at 1 percent in the days after the debate, which led him to suspend his campaign.

First Democratic Debate



Winner: Michelle Obama

In the Democratic debate, Michelle Obama came out with a clear win, along with a surprisingly good performance from lesser-known candidate Russ Feingold. In the midst of Joe Biden's sub-par performance (he started off well in the debate but quickly sank his performance after responses to Obama and Bredesen), Obama was able to pull a win by successfully laying out her platform and clearly explaining the message of her campaign. Along with a relatively good performance from Phil Bredesen (who was able to articulate his campaign, however he lost support with the more liberal base with his comparison to Kennedy and Clinton), the debate proved to be a national boost for both Obama's and Feingold's campaigns, and a regional boost for Bredesen's campaign.

[wxtransit]

News Update
November 9, 2011

Results of the 2011 elections

Kentucky - Governor (95% reporting)
David L. Williams (R) - 45.40% (apparent winner) (R+1)
Steve Beshear (D) (inc.) - 44.91%
Gatewood Galbraith (I) - 9.64%

Louisiana - Governor (99% reporting)
Bobby Jindal (R) (inc.) - 69.1% ✓
Tara Hollis (D) - 10.1%
Other - 20.8%

Mississippi - Governor (98% reporting)
Phil Bryant (R) - 65.6% ✓
Johnny DuPree (D) - 34.4%

(Note: there was no West Virginia gubernatorial special election due to the fact that a Republican won the West Virginia Senate seat in 2010, leaving Manchin still with the governorship.)

Mississippi Ballot Question - Initiative 26
Yes - 52.31% ✓
No - 47.69%

Feingold at rally: Ron Johnson voters were "a bunch of uneducated hicks"

At a rally yesterday in Manchester, New Hampshire, candidate for the Democratic nomination for President in the 2012 elections and former Senator Russ Feingold made questionable comments about supporters of his former Senate opponent, and newly-elected Senator, Ron Johnson. While the subject of the rally was on improving healthcare, the topic quickly shifted to the candidate's run for re-election to the Senate in 2010, and particularly, about the supporters of his opponent, after a heckler in the audience declared "Ron Johnson rigged the Senate race!" Feingold originally made a shift to talk about how Johnson had genuine supporters in an effort to diffuse the situation through a joke; however, Feingold made what commentators have said was "the biggest gaffe of his campaign so far" when he declared that "Johnson had genuine supporters. He had a bunch of conservative uneducated hicks who voted for him in the election!"

While the audience laughed at the time, many pundits have since declared that "while it was intended as a joke, there's no doubt that this will be poorly received by conservative Democrats and possibly even the national base. They don't want a candidate who will marginalize the base." A flash poll from the New York Times reveals Feingold's campaign has taken a hit, with his support ranging in the lower teens to mid single digits. What will be the most defining for his campaign; however, is how he responds in the coming weeks, which could either prevent further damage or ensure it.

In surprise twist, Huckabee becomes voice of reason at Occupy Wall Street protests

During a surprise visit by Huckabee's campaign to Zuccotti Park, the site of the Occupy Wall Street protests on Sunday, Huckabee took a microphone, stood on a bench, and began to make an improvised speech criticizing both sides of the protests. While he initially was booed by supporters of the protest during his criticism of the encampment, as his speech wore on, it became well-received by the protestors and some protestors reportedly left the encampment as a result of the speech.

During the speech, which came as a surprise to even the protestors as Huckabee drove up in an unassuming sedan by himself and took out a battery-powered microphone and a speaker and stood up on a bench, Huckabee criticized the protestors, saying that "If you want to make real change, camping on private property isn't the place to start", which was followed by boos from the protestors. However, as he began to state that "you all have a real cause, but this isn't the place to protest", the crowd began to silence and listen to his argument. He closed the speech, which began to be met with applause from some of the protestors, by saying that "you shouldn't be protesting here. Your protest should be at the ballot box in the primaries and the general. That's where your voice will count!" Dozens of protestors packed up and left after he ended his speech. One protestor, when interviewed, said that while she did not agree with Huckabee's politics, that she was "impressed...that he took the time to come out here and hear our argument, and take the time to make a speech. I'd consider voting for him if I was a Republican."

A New York Times flash poll taken after his speech finds him neck-and-neck with frontrunner Jeb Bush, both with 20 percent of the vote.

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Make sure to get your schedules in ASAP!

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Turn Four

December 1st - January 2nd

THIS IS THE FINAL TURN BEFORE THE IOWA CAUCUSES

Headlines:

U.S. national debt grows past GDP for the first time since the 1940s
Growing national debt exceeded the total GDP for the United States for the first time since the post-war era as economists become concerned

Former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich sentenced to 14 years in prison for corruption
Court ruled prison time was necessary for the former Governor in accordance with multiple counts, including bribery for President Obama's Senate seat

Iran rejects U.S. request to return drone
After an RQ-170 reconnaissance aircraft belonging to the United States was captured by Iranian forces, the Iranian government refuses to return the drone

2012 campaign bolts head-first into Iowa
With the race tightening and changing in both fields, the race for the nomination is still anyone's game

RCP Job Approval Average (President Obama):

Disapprove: 54%
Approve: 41%
Unsure: 5%

RCP National Average:

Generic Republican: 44%
Generic Democrat: 41%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 7%
Undecided: 8%

RCP Republican Average:

Mike Huckabee: 22%
Jeb Bush: 22%
Rudy Guiliani: 16%
Jim DeMint: 15%
Michelle Bachmann: 12%
Adam Carolla: 1%
Undecided: 12%

With the race for the nomination now heading head-first into Iowa, the race has grown yet more inconclusive, with a tie for frontrunner now in the works. In the newest RCP average, both Huckabee and Bush receive 21 percent, after an enthusiastic push for support from the Huckabee campaign and an energized base. While Bush also gained in the average, in his case by one percent, the numbers should be of mild concern to his campaign, which may be going in a similar direction to Biden's if he doesn't take notice. Although Bush has been running a very well-oiled campaign, his message has been mildly lost in the midst of more grassroots operations by campaigners such as Huckabee, Guiliani, and DeMint.

Guiliani, DeMint, and Bachmann have all seen modest polling increases as their campaigns enter October; while they have not yet been able to crack the spot for frontrunner unlike Huckabee, they still remain in prime position heading into the first electoral contest for the nomination. In addition, with the withdraw of rising star Nikki Haley, it leaves the contest in South Carolina all the more up for grabs. On the other end, Adam Carolla's candidacy has been lost in the midst of the heavy campaigning from the aforementioned campaigns, as while his campaign boasts strong endorsements, his message has fallen by the wayside as of now. If Carolla is able to take up the mantle of chief libertarian in the contest; however, he could make a serious play for the nomination.

RCP Democratic Average:

Michelle Obama: 41%
Joe Biden: 35%
Russ Feingold: 12%
Howard Dean: 4%
Phil Bredesen: 4%
Evan Bayh: 2%
Undecided: 2%

As Obama's campaign gains a healthy lead over Biden's campaign after yet another month of heavy campaigning, major shifts in the lower half of the field began to emerge. A field of four grew to six with the entries of former Governor Howard Dean, 2004 presidential candidate, and former Senator Evan Bayh, who was unseated in the 2010 midterms along fellow candidate Russ Feingold. While both start off with relatively small bases, with both campaigns, there remains much room to grow if they act on their potential. On the other hand, former Senator Feingold's campaign, after taking a minor hit from a gaffe at a rally, mostly stabilized in the national polls after a fiery speech from the Senator himself and well-coordinated damage control efforts. However, all eyes are no longer on the campaigns for the time being, but on Iowa.

Endorsements:

Biden: Jeanne Shaheen, Tom Harkin; Beau Biden, Bill Nelson; Carl Levin, Tom Carper
Bredesen: Blanche Lincoln, Karl Dean; Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand; Joe Donnelly, Al Gore
Feingold: Sherrod Brown, Barbara Boxer; Deval Patrick, Wesley Clark; Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren
Obama: Tom Vilsack, Dave Loebsack; Oprah Winfrey, Hillary Clinton; AFL-CIO, Dick Durbin

Bachmann: Carly Fiorina, Kristi Noem; Phil Bryant, Steve King; Marsha Blackburn, Tom Latham
Bush: Dan Quayle, Kelly Ayotte; John McCain, Rick Perry; N/A
Carolla: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ron Paul; N/A; Reason Magazine, Drew Pinsky
Christie: Nancy Reagan, Mitt Romney
DeMint: Tim Scott, Bobby Jindal; Buddy Roemer, Lindsey Graham; Trey Gowdy, Ron Johnson
Giuliani: George Pataki, David Vitter; Mark Kirk, Scott Walker; Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich
Haley: N/A; Sarah Palin, Scott Brown; N/A
Huckabee: Marco Rubio, Chuck Norris; Haley Barbour, Herman Cain; Nancy Reagan, Colin Powell
Trump: Orrin Hatch, Kid Rock; Bob McDonnell, N/A

Bloomberg: Joe Lieberman, Olympia Snowe; Andrew Cuomo, Tom Foley; Charlie Baker, Lincoln Chafee


Endorsements for candidates who have dropped out (denoted by a strike-through) are up for grabs. Semicolons denote turns.

PLEASE READ
Moderator's notes: This turn will last until Thursday night, at 11:59:59 PM CDT. Make sure to PM me ASAP if you need an extension, preferably after you read this sentence. There will be a debate during this turn, posted after the state polling.

You are allowed two endorsements per turn, so make sure to PM me your endorsements so that I can approve of them, and endorsements are first-come, first-serve. Endorsements are now open for IA statewide offices and newspapers for this turn. Endorsements are still first come, first serve, and they do count towards your two-endorsement per turn limit.

This turn will last the month of December and a few days in January before the IA Caucuses. Make sure to schedule your campaign accordingly.

A schedule is required. You can post 20 speeches or no speeches, but what is required for you to post is your schedule. It doesn't have to be detailed, just give me a short description of each day's (or week's) events.

Advertisements: if you poll more than 15% nationally, you may run two advertisements. If you poll between 10% and 15%, you may run one advertisement, and if you poll below 10%, build up your campaign so that next round you can have a shot at running advertisements!

(For the general election: ad thresholds are 5% for one ad, and 7.5% for two.)

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State polling (Republicans):

Iowa:

Mike Huckabee: 21%
Jeb Bush: 20%
Jim DeMint: 19%
Michelle Bachmann: 17%
Rudy Guiliani: 12%
Adam Carolla: 1%
Undecided: 9%

New Hampshire:

Rudy Guiliani: 23%
Jeb Bush: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 17%
Jim DeMint: 10%
Michelle Bachmann: 7%
Adam Carolla: 4%
Undecided: 20%

South Carolina:

Mike Huckabee: 23%
Jeb Bush: 20%
Jim DeMint: 20%
Michelle Bachmann: 9%
Rudy Guiliani: 5%
Adam Carolla: 1%
Undecided: 22%

Florida:

Jeb Bush: 28%
Mike Huckabee: 22%
Jim DeMint: 17%
Michelle Bachmann: 14%
Rudy Guiliani: 9%
Adam Carolla: 1%
Undecided: 9%

Nevada:

Rudy Guiliani: 21%
Jeb Bush: 20%
Mike Huckabee: 18%
Jim DeMint: 12%
Michelle Bachmann: 6%
Adam Carolla: 4%
Undecided: 19%

State polling (Democrats):

Iowa:

Michelle Obama: 41%
Joe Biden: 35%
Russ Feingold: 12%
Howard Dean: 4%
Phil Bredesen: 4%
Evan Bayh: 2%
Undecided: 2%

New Hampshire:

Michelle Obama: 32%
Joe Biden: 22%
Russ Feingold: 21%
Howard Dean: 18%
Phil Bredesen: 1%
Evan Bayh: 1%
Undecided: 5%

Nevada:

Michelle Obama: 34%
Joe Biden: 32%
Russ Feingold: 16%
Howard Dean: 12%
Phil Bredesen: 1%
Evan Bayh: 1%
Undecided: 4%

South Carolina:

Michelle Obama: 45%
Joe Biden: 30%
Phil Bredesen: 11%
Evan Bayh: 5%
Russ Feingold: 2%
Howard Dean: 2%
Undecided: 5%

Florida:

Michelle Obama: 36%
Joe Biden: 31%
Phil Bredesen: 12%
Evan Bayh: 5%
Russ Feingold: 5%
Howard Dean: 4%
Undecided: 7%

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Second Republican Presidential Debate

Des Moines, Iowa
Hosted by CNN

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In addition, you may respond to any of the candidates debating alongside you in this debate (not the other party's debate), but please keep all responses brief.

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Second Democratic Presidential Debate

Iowa City, Iowa
Hosted by MSNBC

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In addition, you may respond to any of the candidates debating alongside you in this debate (not the other party's debate), but please keep all responses brief.

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Could you respond to my PM? No rush.

Please only post out of character statements in the OOC thread. Additionally, PM me with your endorsements after the turn closes as it'll get buried in new PMs and I can't respond or grant until the turn is closed.

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Here is a link to my schedule-

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1DdA7ZLkwlu7hhHphZhozkBHQqln7M6iassaPC4Xmyoc/edit

Could you post it on here next time? Also, only make out of character statements in the OOC/Signups thread.

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TURN IS CLOSED!

I'll begin the coverage of the IA Caucuses shortly, I just need to finish grading all your performances.

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America's Choice 2012: Iowa Caucuses

Anderson Cooper: Hello America, and welcome to Election Night on CNN. With now 30 minutes to go until the caucus doors close, it's time to begin our coverage of the Iowa Caucuses. Tonight, we have two races which have both been hard-fought, the Democratic and Republican caucuses. When the polls close, we'll have a joint broadcasters' exit poll to reveal how we think Iowa voted tonight. Bear in mind; however, that this exit poll is not often 100 percent accurate. Now, with the formalities out of the way, let's get to our team of pundits and reporters here with us tonight. First, let's start off with some analysis from Jim Acosta. Over the past week, what have you seen in Iowa, Jim?

Jim Acosta: Well, it's been an interesting race for sure. On the Republican side, the race seems to have narrowed over the course of the past month, as all five of the main Republican candidates have made a major push for Iowa. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the winner's margin tonight will be less than a point. All five of the candidates that have been out here on the trail, especially in the last week, have been able to rally all of their respective bases. I'm seeing that this is shaping up to be a close race, Anderson.

Anderson Cooper: Thanks, Jim. Alright, now onto our next political contributor, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who himself was floated as a potential candidate for the Republican nomination in this cycle before declining to enter. What are your thoughts, and who do you think will pull out a win tonight?

Rick Santorum: As Jim said earlier, I also think this is going to be a very close race in the fight for the Republican nomination. Huckabee's got some momentum, so if I were a betting man, I would place my bets on him. However, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see even Bachmann pull out a win tonight. On the Democratic side, it seems like mostly a foregone conclusion. Obama's led the polls in Iowa for a few months now, and it doesn't seem if anything's changed that. I would be surprised to see anyone else eke out a win. However, I think the real story for the Democrats here isn't who wins tonight, but by how much. It'll be interesting to see where all the candidates place tonight, and I think we may be in for a long one.

Anderson Cooper: Alright, thank you. Now, we'll go to a quick commercial break before we return to our coverage of the 2012 Iowa Caucuses.

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America's Choice 2012: Iowa Caucuses

30 minutes later...

Wolf Blitzer: ...Alright, and I'll have to interrupt you here, the polls are now closed in Iowa, and I'm told we have our exit poll.

Iowa Republican Caucus Exit Poll

Mike Huckabee: 19-23%
Jeb Bush: 19-23%
Jim DeMint: 19-22%
Michelle Bachmann: 18-21%
Rudy Guiliani: 14-19%
Adam Carolla: 0-2%

Michelle Obama: 40-44%
Joe Biden: 30-36%
Russ Feingold: 8-16%
Phil Bredesen: 6-10%
Evan Bayh: 1-4%
Howard Dean: 0-3%

Anderson Cooper: And this is pretty much close to what we've been expecting all week. Interesting to note; however, that according to our exit poll it appears that Huckabee, Bush, and DeMint are in a virtual tie with Bachmann and Guiliani close behind. However, do remember this is only an exit poll, and anything can still happen.

Wolf Blitzer: That's interesting, Anderson. On the Democratic side, no surprise there. However, as we said earlier, it will be the margins that matter in this race. As you can see, we have the chance for a four-point gap or a fourteen-point gap between Obama and Biden in this exit poll. Right now, i's an early night, and there's still much more to come.