Wxtransit's election coverage thread

[wxtransit]

Because why not. I'll update in the future.

Table of Contents:
February Presidential Election Poll, Dec. 15-17, 2017
Lincoln Special Election, January 2018
South General and Lincoln Special Elections
January/February Preference Poll, Jan. 7-14, 2018
Fremont Snap Election, January 2018
April Midterm Elections
June Federal Election
Lincoln - December 2018 midterms

[wxtransit]

February Presidential Election Preference Poll

Pollster: WXNews Polling
Dates: Dec. 15-17, 2017
Respondents: 22

Question 1: If fhtagn decides to run again, who would you vote for?

fhtagn (Fed) - 40.9%
Labor candidate - 27.3%
Citizens candidate - 22.7%
Peace candidate - 9.1%

Question 2: If fhtagn decides not to run again, who would you vote for?

Federalist candidate - 27.3%
Labor candidate - 27.3%
Citizens candidate - 22.7%
Peace candidate - 9.1%
Other - 13.6%

[wxtransit]

February Presidential Election Preference Poll

Pollster: WXNews Polling
Dates: Dec. 15-17, 2017
Respondents: 22

Question 1: If fhtagn decides to run again, who would you vote for?

fhtagn (Fed) - 40.9%
Labor candidate - 27.3%
Citizens candidate - 22.7%
Peace candidate - 9.1%

Question 2: If fhtagn decides not to run again, who would you vote for?

Federalist candidate - 27.3%
Labor candidate - 27.3%
Citizens candidate - 22.7%
Peace candidate - 9.1%
Other - 13.6%

intersting labor has same support base no matter what.

I mean, the poll literally runs a generic Laborite against generic candidates from the other main parties; Question 2 is basically a party membership survey.

Pretty much. I wouldn't read too much into this poll, because

1. there were 22 respondents
2. it's way too early

Once people start speculating runs, then better polls can be made.

[wxtransit]

Interesting although I would suggest you do approval rating polls ect. because we don't know the candidates yet.

Another idea might be to weigh the polling by party affiliation ect. because polling in the past has maaaassively underestimated the Federalist vote.

Good idea. I'll be sure to do this next time I run a poll.

[wxtransit]

I said I'd cover every election that I could, so...

Citizens Party Provisional Leadership Election, December 2017 (1/7 or 14.3% reporting)

Chairman
wxtransit - 1 - 100%
Other - 0 - 0%

Vice-Chairman
DFL - 1 - 100%
Other - 0 - 0%

Secretary
rpryor03 [write-in] - 1 - 100%
Other - 0 - 0%

[wxtransit]

Citizens Party Provisional Leadership Election, December 2017 (2/7 or 28.9% reporting)

Chairman
wxtransit - 2 - 100%
Other - 0 - 0%

Vice-Chairman
DFL - 2 - 100%
Other - 0 - 0%

Secretary
rpryor03 [write-in] - 2 - 100%
Other - 0 - 0%

[wxtransit]

Citizens Party Provisional Leadership Election, December 2017 (3/7 or 42.9% reporting)

Chairman
wxtransit - 3 - 100%
Other - 0 - 0%

Vice-Chairman
DFL - 3 - 100%
Other - 0 - 0%

Secretary
rpryor03 [write-in] - 3 - 100%
Other - 0 - 0%

[wxtransit]

Lincoln Special Election, January 2018
(26.1% reporting, Pessimistic Antineutrino last counted)

Assembly Special Election
To fill one seat in the Lincoln Assembly

Jimmy7812 (Fed.) - 15 - 88.2% ✓
Benjamin Harrison he is w (Fed.) [write-in] - 1 - 5.9%
Ninja0428 (Ind.) [write-in] - 1 - 5.9%

Referendum
Article V. (Amendment)

Yes - 13 - 100% ✓
No - 0 - 0.0%
Abstain - 0 - 0.0%

Projection:
Jimmy7812 (Federalist) will be elected to finish SamTilden2020's term in the Lincoln Assembly
and
Article V. has been passed.

[wxtransit]

Lincoln Special Election, January 2018
(27.7% reporting, lok1999 last counted)

Assembly Special Election
To fill one seat in the Lincoln Assembly

Jimmy7812 (Fed.) - 15 - 88.2% ✓
Benjamin Harrison he is w (Fed.) [write-in] - 1 - 5.9%
Ninja0428 (Ind.) [write-in] - 1 - 5.9%

Referendum
Article V. (Amendment)

Yes - 14 - 100% ✓
No - 0 - 0.0%
Abstain - 0 - 0.0%

Projections:
7:19 PM CST - Jimmy7812 (Federalist) will be elected to finish SamTilden2020's term in the Lincoln Assembly and Article V. has been passed.

[wxtransit]

Lincoln Special Election, January 2018
(35.4% reporting, Enduro last counted)

Assembly Special Election
To fill one seat in the Lincoln Assembly

Jimmy7812 (Fed.) - 20 - 90.9% ✓
Benjamin Harrison he is w (Fed.) [write-in] - 1 - 4.5%
Ninja0428 (Ind.) [write-in] - 1 - 4.5%

Referendum
Article V. (Amendment)

Yes - 19 - 100% ✓
No - 0 - 0.0%
Abstain - 0 - 0.0%

Projections:
7:19 PM CST - Jimmy7812 (Federalist) will be elected to finish SamTilden2020's term in the Lincoln Assembly and Article V. has been passed.

[wxtransit]

Is Ben Harrison’s vote gonna be invalidated since Greedo has been found out?

Maybe not. It depends if they ban him.

I guess this is also a good time to issue a disclaimer: Vote counts may not be 100% accurate as I don't have the time to check if every vote is valid. It is 99.9% accurate, though

[wxtransit]

can't wait for the Southern results to roll in!

Me too. I'll be updating this weekend, so watch this page.

[wxtransit]

South (wxtransit last counted)

Governor (first preferences)

Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 7 - 46.7%
diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 7 - 46.7%
Harrytruman48 (Lab-Independent) - 1 - 0%
sjoycefla (ARWP-Independent) - 0 - 0%
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 1 - 6.7%

House of Delegates (first preferences)

TheSaint250 (Fed-Independent) - 3 - 20.0%
blackraisin (Fed-Independent) - 2 - 13.3%
DTC (PUP-Independent) - 2 - 13.3%
razze (Pea-Independent) - 2 - 13.3%
TimTurner (Lab-Independent) - 2 - 13.3%
weatherboy1102 (Lab-Independent) - 2 - 13.3%
Bagel23 (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 6.7%
Lechasseur (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 6.7%
Chardee MacDennis (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%
Fairbol (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%

Lincoln (Scott last counted)

Senate (first preferences)

LouisvilleThunder (Fed) - 9 - 60.0%
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 6 - 40.0%

[wxtransit]

South (West_Midlander last counted)

Governor (first preferences)

Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 8 - 50.0%
diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 7 - 43.8%
Harrytruman48 (Lab-Independent) - 1 - 0%
sjoycefla (ARWP-Independent) - 0 - 0%
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 1 - 6.3%

House of Delegates (first preferences)

TheSaint250 (Fed-Independent) - 3 - 18.8%
razze (Pea-Independent) - 3 - 18.8%
blackraisin (Fed-Independent) - 2 - 12.5%
DTC (PUP-Independent) - 2 - 12.5%
TimTurner (Lab-Independent) - 2 - 12.5%
weatherboy1102 (Lab-Independent) - 2 - 12.5%
Bagel23 (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 6.3%
Lechasseur (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 6.3%
Chardee MacDennis (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%
Fairbol (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%

State of the races: Peebs has a slim lead over diptheiradan, so the Governor's race is too close to call. In the legislature, the race is also very close, but if current trends continue, the left could make gains in the House of Delegates. TheSaint250 and razze lead.

Lincoln (Scott last counted)

Senate (first preferences)

LouisvilleThunder (Fed) - 9 - 60.0%
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 6 - 40.0%

State of the race: LouisvilleThunder is likely to win, but there is still more vote to come.

[wxtransit]

Just as a suggestion, if a one-winner race appears to be down to two candidates, you might want to start posting head-to-head (redistibuting all third-party votes to whoever was their higher preference).

Thank you for the suggestion! I think I'll do that for this.

[wxtransit]

South (DavidB. last counted)

Governor (first preferences)

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 13 - 50.0%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 10 - 38.5%
Harrytruman48 (Lab-Independent) - 1 - 3.8%
sjoycefla (ARWP-Independent) - 1 - 3.8%
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 1 - 3.8%

Two-way:

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 14 - 53.8%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 11 - 42.3%
Thrown out {did not advance} - 1 - 3.8%

House of Delegates (first preferences)

TheSaint250 (Fed-Independent) - 6 - 24.0% ✓
blackraisin (Fed-Independent) - 4 - 16.0% ✓
Lechasseur (Fed-Independent) - 4 - 16.0% ✓
razze (Pea-Independent) - 3 - 12.0%
weatherboy1102 (Lab-Independent) - 3 - 12.0%
DTC (PUP-Independent) - 2 - 8.0%
TimTurner (Lab-Independent) - 2 - 8.0%
Bagel23 (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 4.0%
Chardee MacDennis (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%
Fairbol (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%

Projection: TheSaint250, blackraisin, and Lechasseur of the Federalists will all be elected and re-elected to the Chamber.

State of the Governor's race: While Peebs looked to hold onto an early lead, the Federalist base is starting to turn out and give diptheriadan a slim lead over Peebs. The race, however, is still closer than normal for the most conservative region in Atlasia.

State of the race for House of Delegates: With a significant amount of the vote now in, we can project that three Federalists have been elected. The makeup of the next House may be decided by a few votes, however, as the candidates trailing right behind the declared winners are all left-leaning. Only time will tell, though.

In general: it's looking like a bad weekend to be a Federalist in the South.


Lincoln (TJ in Cleve last counted)

Senate (first preferences)

LouisvilleThunder (Fed) - 13 - 68.4% ✓
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 6 - 31.6%

Projection: LouisvilleThunder will hold the open seat for the Federalists.

State of the race: With a significant amount of the vote in, and no organized write-in challenge having been mounted (it seemed possible before), LouisvilleThunder will become the next Senator from Lincoln by a large margin.

[wxtransit]

South (DavidB. last counted)

Governor (first preferences)

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 13 - 50.0%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 10 - 38.5%
Harrytruman48 (Lab-Independent) - 1 - 3.8%
sjoycefla (ARWP-Independent) - 1 - 3.8%
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 1 - 3.8%

Two-way:

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 14 - 53.8%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 11 - 42.3%
Thrown out {did not advance} - 1 - 3.8%

House of Delegates (first preferences)

TheSaint250 (Fed-Independent) - 6 - 24.0% ✓
blackraisin (Fed-Independent) - 4 - 16.0% ✓
Lechasseur (Fed-Independent) - 4 - 16.0% ✓
razze (Pea-Independent) - 3 - 12.0%
weatherboy1102 (Lab-Independent) - 3 - 12.0%
DTC (PUP-Independent) - 2 - 8.0%
TimTurner (Lab-Independent) - 2 - 8.0%
Bagel23 (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 4.0%
Chardee MacDennis (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%
Fairbol (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%

State of the races: still awaiting more votes before we will declare the Governorship and the House of Delegates.


Lincoln (Kingpoleon last counted)

Senate (first preferences)

LouisvilleThunder (Fed) - 14 - 66.7% ✓
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 7 - 33.3%


Projections:
12:06 CST - LouisvilleThunder will hold the open seat for the Federalists and TheSaint250, blackraisin, and Lechasseur of the Federalists will all be elected and re-elected to the Chamber.

[wxtransit]

That's a pretty impressive performance by Peebs, all things considered.

I think that's going to be the story of the weekend. It seems that the left has over-performed expectations, so far. Polls will stay open for a little over five hours, though.

[wxtransit]

Update for Lincoln.
4:48 CST


South (DavidB. last counted)

Governor (first preferences)

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 13 - 50.0%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 10 - 38.5%
Harrytruman48 (Lab-Independent) - 1 - 3.8%
sjoycefla (ARWP-Independent) - 1 - 3.8%
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 1 - 3.8%

Two-way:

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 14 - 53.8%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 11 - 42.3%
Thrown out {did not advance} - 1 - 3.8%

House of Delegates (first preferences)

TheSaint250 (Fed-Independent) - 6 - 24.0% ✓
blackraisin (Fed-Independent) - 4 - 16.0% ✓
Lechasseur (Fed-Independent) - 4 - 16.0% ✓
razze (Pea-Independent) - 3 - 12.0%
weatherboy1102 (Lab-Independent) - 3 - 12.0%
DTC (PUP-Independent) - 2 - 8.0%
TimTurner (Lab-Independent) - 2 - 8.0%
Bagel23 (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 4.0%
Chardee MacDennis (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%
Fairbol (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%


Lincoln (Kingpoleon last counted)

Senate (first preferences)

LouisvilleThunder (Fed) - 14 - 63.4% ✓
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 8 - 36.3%


Projections:
12:06 CST - LouisvilleThunder will hold the open seat for the Federalists and TheSaint250, blackraisin, and Lechasseur of the Federalists will all be elected and re-elected to the Chamber.

[wxtransit]

Update for the South.
5:05 CST


South (sjkqw last counted)

Governor (first preferences)

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 13 - 48.1%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 11 - 40.7%
Harrytruman48 (Lab-Independent) - 1 - 3.7%
sjoycefla (ARWP-Independent) - 1 - 3.7%
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 1 - 3.7%

Two-way:

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 14 - 51.9%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 12 - 44.4%
Thrown out {did not advance} - 1 - 3.7%

House of Delegates (first preferences)

TheSaint250 (Fed-Independent) - 6 - 23.1% ✓
Lechasseur (Fed-Independent) - 5 - 19.2% ✓
blackraisin (Fed-Independent) - 4 - 15.4% ✓
razze (Pea-Independent) - 3 - 11.5%
weatherboy1102 (Lab-Independent) - 3 - 11.5%
DTC (PUP-Independent) - 2 - 7.7%
TimTurner (Lab-Independent) - 2 - 7.7%
Bagel23 (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 3.8%
Chardee MacDennis (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%
Fairbol (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%

State of the Governor's race: diptheriadan now only has a two-vote lead over Peebs in the first round and in the runoff.


Lincoln (Kingpoleon last counted)

Senate (first preferences)

LouisvilleThunder (Fed) - 14 - 63.4% ✓
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 8 - 36.3%


Projections:
12:06 CST - LouisvilleThunder will hold the open seat for the Federalists and TheSaint250, blackraisin, and Lechasseur of the Federalists will all be elected and re-elected to the Chamber.

[wxtransit]

You forgot to update the "Last Counted".

Already edited it.

[wxtransit]

Update for the South.
5:53 CST


South (sjoycefla last counted)

Governor (first preferences)

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 13 - 46.4%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 11 - 39.3%
sjoycefla (ARWP-Independent) - 2 - 7.1%
Harrytruman48 (Lab-Independent) - 1 - 3.6%
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 1 - 3.6%

Two-way:

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 14 - 50.0%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 13 - 46.4%
Thrown out {did not advance} - 1 - 3.6%

House of Delegates (first preferences)

TheSaint250 (Fed-Independent) - 6 - 22.2% ✓
Lechasseur (Fed-Independent) - 5 - 18.5% ✓
blackraisin (Fed-Independent) - 4 - 14.8% ✓
razze (Pea-Independent) - 4 - 14.8% ✓
weatherboy1102 (Lab-Independent) - 3 - 11.1%
DTC (PUP-Independent) - 2 - 7.4%
TimTurner (Lab-Independent) - 2 - 7.4%
Bagel23 (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 3.6%
Chardee MacDennis (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%
Fairbol (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%

State of the Governor's race: diptheriadan now only has a one-vote lead over Peebs in the runoff. Governorship is a true tossup.

Projection: Razze is elected as the first Delegate from the Peace Party.


Lincoln (Kingpoleon last counted)

Senate (first preferences)

LouisvilleThunder (Fed) - 14 - 63.4% ✓
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 8 - 36.3%


Projections:
12:06 CST - LouisvilleThunder will hold the open seat for the Federalists and TheSaint250, blackraisin, and Lechasseur of the Federalists will all be elected and re-elected to the Chamber.

[wxtransit]

Update for the South.
5:53 CST


South (PragmaticPopulist last counted)

Governor (first preferences)

diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 13 - 43.3%
Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 12 - 40.0%
sjoycefla (ARWP-Independent) - 2 - 6.7%
Harrytruman48 (Lab-Independent) - 1 - 3.3%
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 2 - 6.7%

Two-way:

Peebs (Pea-Liberal Justice) - 15 - 50.0%
diptheriadan (Fed-Southern People's) - 14 - 46.7%
Thrown out {did not advance} - 1 - 3.3%

House of Delegates (first preferences)

TheSaint250 (Fed-Independent) - 6 - 20.7% ✓
Lechasseur (Fed-Independent) - 5 - 17.4% ✓
blackraisin (Fed-Independent) - 4 - 13.8% ✓
razze (Pea-Independent) - 4 - 13.8% ✓
weatherboy1102 (Lab-Independent) - 4 - 13.8% ✓
DTC (PUP-Independent) - 2 - 6.9%
TimTurner (Lab-Independent) - 2 - 6.9%
Bagel23 (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 3.5%
Fairbol (Fed-Independent) - 1 - 3.5%
Chardee MacDennis (Fed-Independent) - 0 - 0%

State of the Governor's race: Peebs has now overtaken diptheriadan by one vote in the second round. If all the votes are confirmed as valid, and trends continue, we could be looking at a historic upset.

Projection: Weatherboy1102 is elected as the next Delegate from the Labor Party.


Lincoln (Kingpoleon last counted)

Senate (first preferences)

LouisvilleThunder (Fed) - 14 - 63.4% ✓
Unconfirmed write-ins (various) - 8 - 36.3%


Projections:
12:06 CST - LouisvilleThunder will hold the open seat for the Federalists and TheSaint250, blackraisin, and Lechasseur of the Federalists will all be elected and re-elected to the Chamber.
5:53 CST - Razze is elected as the first Delegate from the Peace Party.

[wxtransit]

ALSO: How do you pronounce diptheriadan?

I've always assumed it's a compound of "Diptheria Dan."

Me too.

[wxtransit]

Wow this is a really good showing from the left. Governor's race is definitely a tossup at this point, and I'd say the chamber of delegates is Lean Left.

This is what happens with low turnout.