Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

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The thread I needed, but also the one I didn't know existed.

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TX-03 has a Democrat named... Sam Johnson running.

I saw the signs posted at the street corners, and was extremely confused at first.

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This weekend is the TX LP convention in Houston. While Glass is still likely the favorite to be nominated, it's worth noting that at least 2 of her 3 rivals have a decent shot. Unless I'm mistaken this year will have more counties organized and represented than in the past and is shaping up to see a clash between the more conservative wing, the energized An/Cap activist wing, and the more pragmatic Johnson/Weld wing.

I expect Neal Dikeman will secure the nomination for the U.S. Senate race. He sent out a pretty great e-mail that called out his opponents for not even getting their home counties' votes to become delegates to the convention.

Hmm...how much of the vote do you think the nominees get in the general? Or, rather, how energized are the Libertarians and how organized are they?

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It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

Hmmm... the geographic path to a Dem statewide victory in Texas probably isn't that different from Jones's victory in Alabama.  Looking at the swing to Jones in Birmingham, that would probably mean the winning Texas Dem is getting 82% in Travis, 67% in Harris and Bexar and 75% in Dallas, with Tarrant being about 55% Dem.  If that happens and nothing much changes from 2016 in the rural areas or the exurbs, what does that look like statewide?

I assume you probably don't live in Texas

Also, the Texas demographics are quite different than Alabama's. Alabama is your typical Deep South state, with a significant African-American heavily Dem minority, while Texas has a significant Hispanic minority (a plurality in a few decades) that is more swingy in general and quite conservative in the northern rurals.

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It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

This. If he makes counties like Collin (which voted for Trump by 55-38) into about a 7-10 point game, then I'd say Beto's on track for victory. On the other hand, if they are still in Trump's win margin territory, then Beto's pretty much toast, unless he gets great turnout from the cities (possible) and the border (unlikely).

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This weekend is the TX LP convention in Houston. While Glass is still likely the favorite to be nominated, it's worth noting that at least 2 of her 3 rivals have a decent shot. Unless I'm mistaken this year will have more counties organized and represented than in the past and is shaping up to see a clash between the more conservative wing, the energized An/Cap activist wing, and the more pragmatic Johnson/Weld wing.

I expect Neal Dikeman will secure the nomination for the U.S. Senate race. He sent out a pretty great e-mail that called out his opponents for not even getting their home counties' votes to become delegates to the convention.

Hmm...how much of the vote do you think the nominees get in the general? Or, rather, how energized are the Libertarians and how organized are they?

Optomistally 5%, realistically 2-3%. The LPTX is slowley bure surely growing. more counties are being organized and new activists are popping up. Heck, one of the gubernatorial candidates is an elected official from the Austin area. But we face a pretty big headwind when Abbot is relativly popular and if the dems nominate Valdez she can solidify much of the Dem base, so no ridding the coattails of a protest vote this year

True. Well that's interesting to hear, I never thought about the Libertarians.

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It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

Hmmm... the geographic path to a Dem statewide victory in Texas probably isn't that different from Jones's victory in Alabama.  Looking at the swing to Jones in Birmingham, that would probably mean the winning Texas Dem is getting 82% in Travis, 67% in Harris and Bexar and 75% in Dallas, with Tarrant being about 55% Dem.  If that happens and nothing much changes from 2016 in the rural areas or the exurbs, what does that look like statewide?

I assume you probably don't live in Texas

Also, the Texas demographics are quite different than Alabama's. Alabama is your typical Deep South state, with a significant African-American heavily Dem minority, while Texas has a significant Hispanic minority (a plurality in a few decades) that is more swingy in general and quite conservative in the northern rurals.

I was thinking the path to victory in a Republican Gulf Coast state right now is beating Clinton by 15% in the big cities and college towns while little changes elsewhere.  Maybe that is crazy, but it's roughly what happened in Alabama last December.

Right, but that only works for Gulf Coast states. Even though Texas has a part of the Gulf Coast, it's important to remember that is a very small part of Texas and for this reason the state does not behave like a Deep South state, because it is not a Deep South state.