It honestly seems that the independence bid is failing spectacularly, or at least from what I see, as the police force will take complete neutrality and there is a relatively-sized anti-independence march in Barcelona (but for all I know, these people could be bussed in from Madrid
). If the Catalan police force is not at least 60-70% willing to stand for independence, then that would be a gaping hole in Catalonia's defenses if Spain chooses to swoop in. Also, it seems that lately Rajoy has tried to pull the "good guy" card, as it seems he has tried to soften his stance ever so slightly in the past day or so. I could be wrong, however.
Just my thoughts from 10,000 feet.