FL-Rasmussen: Obama up 2

[Flying Dog]

Yes, McCain is up by 10 in Ohio and Obama is up in Florida. Oh, how I love summer

[Flying Dog]

Now, one important improvement on the 12% number that may occur this year because is that former felons are now allowed to vote.  And the margins will probably increase slightly.

Kudos to Charlie Crist for liberalizing the state's voting rules. It would be wonderfully ironic if a McCain/Crist ticket lost because of an abnormally high black turnout, swelled by the newly empowered criminal voting bloc.

Crist should get his "gay" ass horse whipped for doing that.  I'll supply the whip.

You'd like that, wouldn't you?

For the record, I support Crists gay ass in this instance.

[Flying Dog]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Because we all know that Primary results = General results...

[Flying Dog]

obama has been running surprisingly strong in florida.

wonder if he is considering nelson for veep?

cant see any way mccain wins without florida.

It would be very difficult...but given how poorly Obama did in suburban Philadelphia...narrow win in montco...only decent in Delaware, blown out in Bucks, Lehigh Valley...McCain could almost make florida up in PA

Because we all know that Primary results = General results...

What don't people understand? We're not saying that "Primary = General" but there are still very similar factors. The types of Democrats that we're talking about are very open to voting for a McCain type Republican. Some of you are being way too naive.

...and some of those 'very similar factors' would be...? Another equation that doesn't match up is H. Clinton = McCain. There are some very see able differences, also. So....


Just an FYI, (not directed toward just Phil) I don't believe 'Reagen Democrats' exist in any or much measure anymore. They pretty much dissolved after...well...the Reagen years. For example, some label the Democrats in Macomb Co. as 'Reagen Democrats.' They aren't. They're simply just not Democrats anymore....at least in any real sense, DINO would be a more appropriate label.

[Flying Dog]

Another big question is, they might like McCain, or at least more than Obama, but they also don't care for the GOP...which wins out there...their hate for BHO or the GOP, not sure.

How about this? Just stay home. That helps McCain, too/

Well yeah...but it wouldnt be enough I dont think...he really needs them to swing to him...I think.

Well, he'll have many of them swinging his way in areas like NE Philly. Give him some from Bucks and he takes the state.

Getting a little ahead of yourself there, Phil.

[Flying Dog]

Well, he'll have many of them swinging his way in areas like NE Philly. Give him some from Bucks and he takes the state.

Getting a little ahead of yourself there, Phil.

How so? Analyzing the state like anyone else? 

I've actually seen this stuff. I've seen hardcore, partisan Dems swearing that they won't vote for the guy. Kerry owned NE Philly (around 60%). If Obama has to fight to win here, the state is gone.

Probably, but how reliable are anecdotes, really?

[Flying Dog]

Well, he'll have many of them swinging his way in areas like NE Philly. Give him some from Bucks and he takes the state.

Getting a little ahead of yourself there, Phil.

How so? Analyzing the state like anyone else? 

I've actually seen this stuff. I've seen hardcore, partisan Dems swearing that they won't vote for the guy. Kerry owned NE Philly (around 60%). If Obama has to fight to win here, the state is gone.

Probably, but how reliable are anecdotes, really?

But they aren't just anecdotes. It's a known weakness of the Obama campaign. You guys just wait and see. I think some of you are being too idealistic and simplistic about this.

Really?

I think this isn't going to be another 2004 in the sense that social issues aren't going to be the main focus. Things like guns and gay marriage may play some part but not in the way they have been like in '04.

The key is the economy. Neither candidate has claimed it as 'their' issue yet.