Rasmussen: Jack Carter(D) cuts into John Ensign's(R) lead

[Flying Dog]

This is just one poll. Don't get too excited. I hope its true though. There are a few factors in Carters favor:

1.Name Recongnition
2.Not too popular incumbant
3.Nevada is trending democrat.

[Flying Dog]

I still don't see how name recognition could be that much of a positive factor for Jack Carter.  Don't forget that Nevada voted against his father both times.

Good Point. But people atleast don't hear his name and say ''Who?''. They know who he is. Also maybe he has been blazing the campaign trail tirelessly and people like what he has to say. All of this is speculation of course. I was in Las Vegas in June. There is massive development going on around the city. Many different demographics are moving there. Including the democrat-leaning Hawaiians and alot of pacific rim country folk. And a A LOT of hispanics. Kerry also cut bush's marigan in the state in 2004.

[Flying Dog]

Ensign is the favorite to win but he hasn't sewn up the race yet. We have to wait for more polling.

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[Flying Dog]

Clark County containes over 4/5 of Nevada's population. That includes Las Vegas, Summerlin, Boulder City, and Henderson. Las Vegas is democrat-leaning while Summerlin is 50/50 along with Boulder and Henderson.
Kerry won Clark county, albiet barely and he was swamped in all other areas of the state. He still got 48% of the vote though. So if Carter can get the same amount of the vote in Clark county and reduce Ensigns marigans in the other parts of the state. Carter has a better chance than many think.

[Flying Dog]

It is trending to the left, but not fast enough to get Ensign out of office. The state is a military state and has a lot of vets and they will be proudly to have Ensign back.

Its also a state where Its biggest city (Las Vegas) is adding almost 100,000 residents every 5 years. Its unpredictable.

[Flying Dog]

But Bush changed NV, from a tossup blue to lean tossup red. Reno which voted for Dems in the past, has steadily trended red since 2000. Believe I thought this race over and over, and Ensign who is endorsed by the firefighters union in NV is not going to lose.

Believe me I want Jack Carter to win but this poll reminds me of the TN poll that had it a 2 point race, the AZ poll that had it 7 point race and the VA poll that had it a 7 point race. Until these races are neck and neck consistantly, I am not going to take them seriously. Anyway Cook came out with the new political report and has this solid republican.

Dont get me wrong, I still think Ensign is going to win but I wouldnt engrave it yet. In 2000 Bush won by about 3.5%. In 2004 he won by about 2.5%. Nevada was one of the few states that Kerry cut Bush's marigins in. I also believe endorsments are overratted. They help but do not win the election. (Remember Gephardt in Iowa). 

[Flying Dog]

I think with the Dems not fielding a strong enough challenger to field against Gibbons, eventhough Gibson would have an easier time than Titus and she is going to win the primary, he is going to carry Ensign over the top.

It might be the other way around. I think we both agree there shoud be more polling on this race to see what is what.

[Flying Dog]

People like him(Jimmy Carter) as a person, but they despise him as a president.