CA-50 Special Election Busby vs. Bilbray

[Flying Dog]

Busby 50%

Bilbray 48%

[Flying Dog]

Reports about LOW TURNOUT are circulating.




 I think the minutman candidate will siphone off enough votes from bilbray that busby will win

[Flying Dog]

Reports about LOW TURNOUT are circulating.




 I think the minutman candidate will siphone off enough votes from bilbray that busby will win

Low turnout is almost always bad for democrats.

Maybe not in this republican distirct

[Flying Dog]

I am not sure low turnout is necessarily great for either party here.  You could either say that only the most energised voters - the Democrats - will turn out.  You could also say that those energised voters aren't turning out, leaving the Republican-leaning base.  It could very well be a mix.

However, registered voter turnout in this district is usually quite excellent.  I would be suspicious of any report claiming that turnout is exceptionally low.  Even if they are unhappy with the choices, this seems like the sort of district where people ote.

Where are these turnout reports coming from?  Mail ballots or precinct voters?

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20060606-9999-1n6elect.html

[Flying Dog]

Am I sad Busby Lost, Yes.  Do I think we should abondon the culture of corruption message, NO.  One special election in a rebublican leaning district doesnt mean the message doesnt resonate with americans. I also think Busby wasnt the best candidate we could have had and her GOTV effort sucked. Also her illegal voting remark (which I still am sceptical about) didnt help.  Bilbray also used the immigration isssue to get conservatives to vote for him.  Busby's campaign relied on young people to get out and vote. They seldom do. Bilbray took the reliable 50 and over voters.  So I am actually surprised how good busby did with all that stacked against her. Had Busby ran an efficient campaign without any gaffes and did not let bilbray compare her to pro-amnesty people and had a great GOTV effort I think she would have won.
Well, no use crying over spilled milk. Lets put this behind use us and focus on the next election: November 2006