WA-8: Reichert retiring

[Keep cool-idge]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

Reichert also ran against Darcy Burner which always helps

I get the sense that the doctor who is endorsed by Emily’s list is going to lose if she is nominated just like burner.

[Keep cool-idge]

The Democrat party is being crushed in the 8th district!

Link

So their generic ballot lead statewide in Washington is less than it is nationally? Junk poll!

The Washington legislative and congressional lines are drawn to protect in incumbents so that could be part of it.

[Keep cool-idge]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

Reichert also ran against Darcy Burner which always helps

I get the sense that the doctor who is endorsed by Emily’s list is going to lose if she is nominated just like burner.

Schrier? She might do okay. It’s hard to be worse than Burner. I still think Rittereiser is the best candidate for us

IMHO, the best candidate for Democrats would be moderate on fiscal issues (some reasonable fiscal conservative streak is rather welcome here) with strong liberal/libertarian leanings on social ones, and good connections (district isn't cheap and requires a lot of money for a candidate to be successfull). If there is one  in the present "pack" he/she will gave good chances, especially if the "wave" goes unabated. But, if leading Democrat will be "rabid progressive" - then i would bet my money on Rossi, despite him not being "the best" possible candidate either (IMHO, someone like Litzow/ Hill would be better, but - alas...)