TX SEN: Cruz +14 (CB Polling)

[gorelick]

these guys were right about AL Senate Race. They had Jones winning in their final poll and not Moore.


cbpolling.press/2017/12/10/doug_jones_on_verge_of_winning/

[gorelick]

The poster here is wrong. They didn't change the content. They just changed the URL of the post.

Look at the Twitter post timelines.

twitter dot com/CBPolling/status/940401150762934272


They posted their poll on Dec 11, night before elections. They just changed the URL of the post. Not their results or content.

The OP should delete his post as its based on inaccurate premise.


"TL;DR: at best, "CB Polling" edited the AL-SEN post above after the fact to make it look like it was predictive; at worst, the post itself was created today to defend its track record on here and then "gorelick" posted the fake AL-SEN poll info on here. There's no evidence - unlike the other, comparably old posts on CB's website - that the page existed prior to the AL-SEN election."

This is totally wrong and unsupported assertion. Also they host their pdf results on different page and link to it. Can OP check thru Sitemap when this page was hosted -  cbpolling.press/home/alabama-senate-general-election-2017/


Further proof - this was posted to reddit a day  before the election .   reddit dot com/r/Conservative/comments/7j8a52/democrat_doug_jones_on_verge_of_clinching_alabama/

OP is literally spreading FAKE NEWS.
 

[gorelick]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Can I know why a pollster that uses Google surveys shouldn't be considered reliable ?

Nate Silver rates them 'B', which is pretty respectable


 projects.fivethirtyeight  dot com/pollster-ratings/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This statement makes no sense, they are just displaying results of Google Surveys. They are not making numbers up.

[gorelick]

Nice deflection. When you can't argue on merit of arguments, then attack the source. Its an old high school debate trick.

Some people here first called the poll fake, when I disproved it then you proceed to attack Google Surveys.

When I pointed out that Google Surveys is rated a respectable 'B' by 538, then you attack the poster.

[gorelick]

@Castro

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Totally agree with this, thats why CBPolling seems to conduct 3 different Google polls and combine results to reduce any sample bias.

You would have known that if you had spent few minutes reading the post instead of jumping on "Fake News" bandwagon just because you didn't like the poll.

[gorelick]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

PredictIt uses RealClearPolitics as sources for their polls. and CBPolling is not listed on RCP. So to argue that CBPolling is being used to manipulate PredictIt markets is an argument with no backing.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is just a  ridiculous statement. You are saying they do 10-15 polls everytime and cherry pick the one they want?  Lets see what they had for Virginia and Alabama Senate.

For Virginia, they had a virtual tie and for AL they had a slight lead for Jones. Both those polls are inline with results of mainstream pollsters. Quinnipiac had race tied in Virginia and Jones was leading slightly in Monmouth in Alabama. So your argument of poll cherry picking is an argument proven wrong by those 2 results.

At this point, you are just clutching to straws trying to find some minor thing somewhere to discredit them

[gorelick]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Your argument is nonsense. If anyone wanted to manipulate betting markets like PredictIT then why would they release polls which agree with mainstream pollsters like Monmouth and Quinnipiac.

If I wanted to manipulate betting markets then I would release polls which are way off mainstream to cause panic among bettors. Your argument is shallow.