'08 House rematch predictions as of June '07

[HardRCafé]

I had heard Burner either would not run again or would not be run again.

As for Northup, the sudden loss of her son supposedly threw her off her game, and she never really recovered.

[HardRCafé]

CO-04 Musgrave(R) vs.  Schaffer(D): 
Musgrave has always underperformed in this Republican leaning district and her percentages continue to drop.  This district, like the state of Colorado is becoming more moderate and Musgrave's very Conservative views turn off many of these new moderate voters.  If Schaffer is the nominee, I think he may finally beat Musgrave.  Schaffer wins 49%-48%.

So, the seat that was Schaffer (R) could flip to Schaffer (D)?  That would be weird.  Is this Schaffer any relation to the other one?

[HardRCafé]

Safe Shaffer.

[HardRCafé]

HardRCafe, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on NC-08. Do you think Rep. Hayes will survive in this Democratic trending district, or do you think '08 will be the year the 8th falls back into Democratic hands?

If this were an off year, I would rate the race tossup.  I expect Hillary to lose North Carolina by double digits, though, and Dole to win without too much sweat.  In that environment, I think the only way Hayes loses is if he learned nothing at all last time.  Kissell deserves the seat, but with the race no longer under the radar, I think the best he can do is keep it close.

Hayes 52%
Kissell 48%