Is the Republican South Starting to Crack?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think Obama will lose Virginia 48%-51% and North Carolina 47%-52% to McCain this year, but if he is re-elected in 2012 he could probably win both. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

My Southern predictions -

VIRGINIA -
51% (R) McCain
48% (D) Obama


NORTH CAROLINA -
52% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama


SOUTH CAROLINA -
54% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama


TENNESSEE -
57% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama


ARKANSAS -
58% (R) McCain
40% (D) Obama


LOUISIANA -
57% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama


TEXAS -
56% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama


MISSISSIPPI -
55% (R) McCain
43% (D) Obama


ALABAMA -
62% (R) McCain
36% (D) Obama


GEORGIA -
55% (R) McCain
43% (D) Obama


FLORIDA -
52% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama



Obama will do well in Virginia, which will be the closest Southern state in 2008.  He will also significantly improve on John Kerry's performance in North Carolina and South Carolina where black turnout will aid him.  He will be the first Democrat to get over 40% of the vote in Texas since 1996.  Alabama should be a virtual replay of 2004, with uglier voting patterns - black turnout will increase but the Democratic share of the white vote should collapse.  I do not think Obama can win Florida, and he will do well to come as close as Kerry did there - especially if McCain possibly chooses Governor Charlie Crist as his running mate.  Black turnout in Georgia and Mississippi will allow Obama do well there, getting 43% apiece.  Tennessee and Louisiana should see similar results to 2004, if not slightly higher for McCain than Bush.  Arkansas should swing hard against the Democrats - alongside Kentucky and West Virginia.  The Clinton factor should hurt Obama in AR, furthermore there is not significant enough black support for him to really raise or compete with Kerry's 44%.  Obama should be lucky to get over 40% in Arkansas really.