Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 10:41:17 AM PST
[Bumped again -- kos]
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/16-18. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kay Hagan, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?
Dole (R) 46
Hagan (D) 39
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jim Neal, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?
Dole (R) 47
Neal (D) 37
Just a seven-point deficit by Hagan, and a 10-point one for Neal, both of them keeping Dole under 50? With the low name ID of the two Democrats, what these results say is that North Carolina voters aren't sold on a second term for Dole, and are willing to give the Democrat a good look. No matter who emerges from the Democratic primary, this is going to be a real race.
Full results below the fold.
* ::
*
NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS - DECEMBER 2007
The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from December 16 through December 18, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Democrats 252 (42%)
Republicans 228 (38%)
Independents/Other 120 (20%)
18-29 90 (15%)
30-44 198 (33%)
45-59 185 (31%)
60+ 127 (21%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 8% 31% 16% 7% 38%
MEN 7% 29% 19% 9% 36%
WOMEN 9% 33% 13% 5% 40%
DEMOCRATS 12% 46% 7% 3% 32%
REPUBLICANS 4% 15% 26% 13% 42%
INDEPENDENTS 7% 28% 15% 4% 46%
18-29 11% 35% 12% 3% 39%
30-44 7% 29% 18% 9% 37%
45-59 8% 30% 17% 7% 38%
60+ 8% 31% 16% 7% 38%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Neal? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 6% 28% 18% 9% 39%
MEN 5% 27% 21% 10% 37%
WOMEN 7% 29% 15% 8% 41%
DEMOCRATS 9% 42% 9% 4% 36%
REPUBLICANS 3% 14% 27% 16% 40%
INDEPENDENTS 5% 26% 18% 6% 45%
18-29 9% 32% 15% 6% 38%
30-44 5% 26% 20% 12% 37%
45-59 5% 27% 19% 9% 40%
60+ 6% 27% 18% 8% 41%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 17% 29% 21% 17% 16%
MEN 18% 31% 20% 16% 15%
WOMEN 16% 27% 22% 18% 17%
DEMOCRATS 10% 18% 31% 28% 13%
REPUBLICANS 26% 41% 12% 6% 15%
INDEPENDENTS 15% 30% 18% 16% 21%
18-29 13% 26% 25% 19% 17%
30-44 19% 31% 19% 15% 16%
45-59 18% 30% 20% 16% 16%
60+ 17% 30% 21% 17% 15%
-----
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kay Hagan, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?
DOLE HAGAN UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 39% 15%
MEN 49% 36% 15%
WOMEN 43% 42% 15%
DEMOCRATS 13% 67% 20%
REPUBLICANS 85% 7% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 38% 21%
18-29 39% 45% 16%
30-44 49% 37% 14%
45-59 47% 38% 15%
60+ 46% 39% 15%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jim Neal, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?
DOLE NEAL UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 37% 16%
MEN 49% 36% 15%
WOMEN 45% 38% 17%
DEMOCRATS 14% 64% 22%
REPUBLICANS 85% 7% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 37% 19%
18-29 39% 43% 18%
30-44 50% 35% 15%
45-59 48% 36% 16%
60+ 48% 38% 14%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 42% 57% 1%
MEN 46% 54% -%
WOMEN 38% 60% 2%
DEMOCRATS 11% 88% 1%
REPUBLICANS 78% 22% -%
INDEPENDENTS 40% 58% 2%
18-29 36% 63% 1%
30-44 44% 55% 1%
45-59 43% 56% 1%
60+ 42% 57% 1%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/12/19/1219/2172/829/424295
