Illinois House Thread

[Adlai Stevenson]

Toss-up? IL-11?

Do the Republicans even have a candidate yet?

You can't beat somebody with nobody.

Any Republican with political sense knows 2008 is gonna be a tough year. So Republicans with the brains to beat Halvorson will be reluctant to enter the contest.

Until the GOP fields a serious candidate assume this seat will flip to Dems.

Is IL-11 the AZ-08 of 2008?

I think OH-15 could be.  A dead 50%-50% Bush district and the GOP is yet to recruit a candidate while the Democrats have already cleared the field for their candidate who got 49.76% of the vote in 2006. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Sam Youngman
October 03, 2007

Mark Pera, an assistant Cook County state’s attorney in Illinois, is running hard against Rep. Daniel Lipinski (D-Ill.) and has enlisted some serious party heavyweights to help him unseat the congressman.

Curiously enough, all those heavyweights traditionally have been aligned with Lipinski’s party.

NARAL Pro-Choice America last week endorsed Pera in this Democratic primary, making Lipinski the only Democrat on its target list so far. And a number of other groups, including pro-stem cell research groups, are joining in to help Pera unseat a congressman that many in the reliably Democratic district say is a Democrat in name only.

Pera has put up impressive fundraising numbers and said Tuesday he expects a stellar third quarter due to the efforts of the netroots. As The Hill reported this week, Pera raised $55,000 on ActBlue, hauling in $30,000 during the last week of the quarter.

Pera can add to that about $2,500 that NARAL’s political action committee contributed Friday when the group endorsed his bid.

NARAL political director Elizabeth Shipp said Pera approached her group earlier this year after making the decision to run.

While Shipp said the group is excited about going to work to help elect Pera, its target is Lipinski.

“We’re certainly going to take him on,” Shipp said of Lipinski.

In 2006, Shipp said NARAL had about 1,000 members on the ground in the district. This time around, she said it has about 2,500 members, supporters and activists ready to go to work.

“We’re starting to ramp up there,” she said.

As it did in 2006, NARAL is looking to focus on micro-targeting to sway pro-abortion rights voters in districts where they can swing an election.

The difference between Lipinski’s district and others the group targets, Shipp said, is that this time it will focus on pro-abortion rights Democratic voters instead of pro-abortion rights Republican and independent voters.

In that district, pro-abortion rights Democratic female voters come to about 47,000 households NARAL will be looking to “educate.”

Shipp said the endorsement and financial contribution were first steps. Organization members will soon go out in the field with a poll to identify voters they might be able to sway.

The congressman is opposed to abortion rights, and his critics, including Pera, said he “sits with the Democrats, but he consistently votes with George Bush on the issues.”

Pera describes himself as a pro-abortion rights, pro-stem cell research Democrat who is in favor of withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.

He will start to try to inform voters in the district about these differences when he goes on TV — if all goes as planned, by the end of this month.

Pera declined to talk specifically about some of the groups supporting his candidacy, except to say, “people in general are angry.”

Despite the home-equity loan he and his wife took out to get their campaign rolling, Pera said his fundraising has been strong, and he “will have more than enough money to get our message out.”

A spokesman for Lipinski said the congressman is “just focused on doing the work for the people of the third district.”

In 2006, Lipinski took just more than half the Democratic primary vote, but his opposition was evenly split between two candidates, financial planner John Kelly and Cook County Assistant State’s Attorney John Sullivan, who took 25 and 20 percent, respectively.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/democrat-lipinskis-primary-enemies-coming-from-his-left-2007-10-03.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) will step down from the House before the end of this year, according to CQ Politics. He'll make a speech this afternoon but will leave only "when I finish my work."

Hastert's early retirement would force a special election in IL-14. One reason he's not giving an exact date for his departure could be the Republican Party's hope that the special election will not be the same day as the presidential primary which could attract many Democrats to the polls since Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) is on the ticket.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/11/15/hastert_will_resign_this_year.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert's recently vacated seat "will be filled in a special election process that will begin with a primary election on Feb. 5 and conclude with a general election on March 8," CQ Politics reports.

The district "has a generic Republican lean; President Bush took 55 percent of the district vote in the 2004 election. But Illinois has been trending Democratic of late, and the district is the most politically competitive of the four congressional districts that are vacant — or soon will be. The Illinois 14 special election could attract national attention and bellwether status early in the 2008 election year."

CQ rates the district Leans Republican.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/12/03/special_election_set_in_il14.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

Illinois Democrat Dick Versace, the former basketball coach and executive, is withdrawing from the U.S. House race in the state’s open 18th District in and around Peoria.

Versace, who coached at the district’s Bradley University before moving on to the NBA, said in a statement that he would leave the race “due to unforeseen personal circumstances” that he did not specify.

“I thank everyone for their support and encouragement in this race, and I ask that you please respect my privacy and that of my family as we face this difficult personal issue,” Versace said.

Versace’s withdrawal leaves the Democratic Party without a candidate for the moment. Versace was the only Democrat who met a Nov. 5 filing deadline to qualify for the Feb. 5 primary election, in which three Republicans are vying to succeed retiring seven-term Republican Rep. Ray LaHood .

Illinois law allows for Democratic officials in the 18th District to fill the November 2008 ballot vacancy with a new candidate after the February 5 primary election, though national and state Democratic operatives will immediately begin candidate recruitment efforts. Illinois Democratic Reps. Phil Hare in 2006 and Dan Lipinski in 2004 were nominated by party officials after the incumbents announced their retirements after the primary election; both Hare and Lipinski were subsequently elected in the November general election.

“We wish Dick Versace well. Our thoughts and prayers are with Dick and his family at this difficult time,” Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen , the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement.

Even before Versace withdrew, the Republicans were favored to retain a district that backed President Bush with 58 percent of the vote in the 2004 election. The three Republican candidates are Jim McConoughey, a business federation president who is backed by Peoria mayor Jim Ardis; John Morris, a former Peoria councilman; and state Rep. Aaron Schock.

“With a solid Republican district and strong Republican candidates, it will be difficult for any Democrat to win while Rod Blagojevich and his pals in Springfield are failing the people of Illinois at every turn,” Illinois Republican Party chairman Andy McKenna said in a statement that referenced Illinois’ Democratic governor and its Democratic-run legislature.

Even with the Versace dropout, CQ Politics rates the Illinois 18 race as “Republican Favored.”

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Aaron Blake
Posted: 02/06/08 01:31 AM [ET]

Rep. Daniel Lipinski (D) easily survived a primary challenge from the left, while dairy magnate Jim Oberweis won a race for the GOP nomination to replace former Rep. Dennis Hastert (R) in the Illinois congressional primaries Tuesday night.

Scientist Bill Foster led 2006 nominee John Laesch on the Democratic side in Hastert’s district, but while he looks headed for the special election next month, the regular primary was too close to call early Wednesday morning.

In retiring Rep. Ray LaHood’s (R), district, state Rep. Aaron Schock grabbed the GOP nomination with more than two-thirds of the vote with almost all precincts in. No Democrats were on the ballot in that race after the party’s candidate, former NBA coach Dick Versace, dropped out.

Democrat Dan Seals won an easy primary victory over former Clinton Administration official Jay Footlik to get his second straight crack at Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), taking about 80 percent of the vote.

Lipinski defeated Democrat Mark Pera 53-26 with 89 percent of precincts reporting.

In Hastert’s district, concurrent primaries were being held for the November election and next month’s special election.

Oberweis led state Sen. Chris Lauzen in both races with 56 percent of the vote and 92 percent of precincts reporting.

Foster led Laesch 43-41 in the regular primary and 50-42 in the special primary, which included one less candidate. Foster has grabbed the attention of national Democrats with a well-funded campaign supplemented by his personal money.

In another contested primary, wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg took a majority of the vote to defeat a pair of GOPers and line himself up for a run at Rep. Melissa Bean (D).

In retiring Rep. Jerry Weller’s (R) district, an expected matchup between New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann (R) and state Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) is now set, as Baldermann cruised to victory and Halvorson was unopposed.

Nationally recruited Iraq veteran Jill Morgenthaler also won the Democratic nod to face Rep. Peter Roskam (R).

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Aaron Blake
Posted: 02/06/08 01:19 PM [ET]

A close race in the Democratic primary for former Rep. Dennis Hastert’s (R-Ill.) seat could lead to a quandary for the party’s efforts to win and keep that district, as the second-place finisher is preparing to challenge the results.

Scientist Bill Foster has won the primary for the special election to fill the seat for the remainder of the 110th Congress, but he leads 2006 nominee John Laesch by fewer than 400 votes in the regular primary, which determines the nominee for November’s general election.

There was one more candidate in the general primary than in the special primary, and he appeared to take nearly all of his 8 percent from Foster.

If Laesch were to get the general primary result flipped, Foster, who is seen by national Democrats as a potentially strong contender for the seat, could ostensibly win the seat next month but not be the nominee in November.

A challenge to the result could also cause Foster additional headaches during the short five-week period before the special election, which will be held March 8.

Laesch spokeswoman Heidi Wetzel said the campaign is collecting information and will likely make an announcement on Thursday. Some county election boards have closed down due to severe weather in the area, making information-gathering difficult.

“We’re calling all of the counties, we’re gathering the information, and we haven’t really made any decisions yet,” Wetzel said. “We’re also calling to see what percentage of absentee ballots has come in because there’s still two weeks for that. We’re checking everything out.”