'08 House rematch predictions as of June '07

[Adlai Stevenson]

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

[Adlai Stevenson]

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.

I think Kissell stands a good chance of knocking Hayes off in NC-8.  To be honest though I don't think we can know what 2008 will be like yet.  I believe it will be a Democratic year again, but I think the Presidential race will affect all the Congressional races.  In OH-15, for example, which Bush won 50%-50%, one would expect the Democratic candidate for President to carry the District and thus doom Pryce - but we just cannot know yet.  I think one can begin to make Congressional predictions when we know the outlook of the Presidential race more clearly. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.

Yes. For example, out of what you listed, I would say the following challengers would also win:

Stender
Kissel
Kilroy
Maybe Seals.

But if there wasnt a rechallenger then I'd say Musgrave goes down too.

I'd be stunned if Stender could win NJ-07 in a Presidential year, because I'd be stunned if the Hunterdon County results for 2008 proved to be as ugly for Ferguson as they were in 2006.  Republicans just aren't going to stay home next year.

It's also worth noting that in this latest session, Mike Ferguson has proved to be more moderate than he's ever been.

Do you think Maffei can knock off Walsh? The only worry I have about that prediction is that Maffei still is rather inexperienced. Speaking of inexperienced candidates, I left off Darcy Burner.

WA-08: Rep. Dave Reichert vs. Democrat Darcy Burner
2006 Result: 51-49 Reichert
2008 Prediction:  53-46 Reichert

Rep. Reichert has had a politically charmed existence. After finding the an notorious murderer, this attractive former Sheriff decided to run for Congress. Instead of facing a strong foe like Alex Alban, the Democrats nominated a far-left radio host who was barraged by NRCC attack ads. After winning 51-47 in 2004, Reichert seemed vulnerable, but the only candidate the Democrats could find was a young woman who doctored her resume. Despite millions of dollars spent on her behalf and a very positive political climate, Burner lost by 2%. With 2008 likely to be a more amenable year to GOP moderates, expect Reichert to increase his victory margin.

I wouldn't expect Reichert to do any better than the 52%-47% victory he won in 2004.  If he doesn't lose, he will a narrow victory again. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

HardRCafe, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on NC-08. Do you think Rep. Hayes will survive in this Democratic trending district, or do you think '08 will be the year the 8th falls back into Democratic hands?

If this were an off year, I would rate the race tossup.  I expect Hillary to lose North Carolina by double digits, though, and Dole to win without too much sweat.  In that environment, I think the only way Hayes loses is if he learned nothing at all last time.  Kissell deserves the seat, but with the race no longer under the radar, I think the best he can do is keep it close.

Hayes 52%
Kissell 48%

I predict Clinton will lose North Carolina 54%-45%, thus she should come closer in NC-8 than John Kerry who lost the District by the same numbers.

[Adlai Stevenson]

HardRCafe, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on NC-08. Do you think Rep. Hayes will survive in this Democratic trending district, or do you think '08 will be the year the 8th falls back into Democratic hands?

If this were an off year, I would rate the race tossup.  I expect Hillary to lose North Carolina by double digits, though, and Dole to win without too much sweat.  In that environment, I think the only way Hayes loses is if he learned nothing at all last time.  Kissell deserves the seat, but with the race no longer under the radar, I think the best he can do is keep it close.

Hayes 52%
Kissell 48%

I predict Clinton will lose North Carolina 54%-45%, thus she should come closer in NC-8 than John Kerry who lost the District by the same numbers.

And that would make the district 51%-48% in favor of the Republican nominee.

Kissell almost won in 2006 as the district is.