According to exit polls, Steele actually did improve among blacks over Bush by quite a much, but Cardin made up most of this by improving among whites over Kerry. If Cardin had done as well among whites as Kerry did, he would've won a close one (like 2-3 points). So really, no, he could've come close but not have won.
Moreover, Mfume would have mitigated the flow of black voters to Steele, essentially cancelling out any advantage Steele would have had amongst whites.
I thought that as well, although Steele may have run better amongst white voters if Mfume was the Democratic nominee. I wish Mfume had won the Primary - I'm convinced he could have won the general election and it would have been an important symbol of the Democratic Party, particularly in Maryland where I gather African Americans think they are just used for votes but under-represented. Cardin is OK - but is another white, 60-year-old former Congressman needed? Mfume would have been different, and I think better.
