Top 40 House races of 2008

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think TX-22 and GA-8 are the most vulnerable Democratic seats.  Georgia is becoming aggressively Republican and Marshall barely won in 2006.  TX-22 is rather obvious and Sam Spade informs us its a highly-partisan district, voting 64%-36% for Bush in 2004.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think TX-22 and GA-8 are the most vulnerable Democratic seats.  Georgia is becoming aggressively Republican and Marshall barely won in 2006.  TX-22 is rather obvious and Sam Spade informs us its a highly-partisan district, voting 64%-36% for Bush in 2004.

I think PA-10 is much more vulnerable than GA-08.  GA-08 is used to electing Conservative Democrats while PA-10 is not.

Well considering how vulnerable Marshall was in 2006 and that 2008 is a Presidential year I think he would lose.  He should run for the Senate or begin a serious entrenchment effort. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think TX-22 and GA-8 are the most vulnerable Democratic seats.  Georgia is becoming aggressively Republican and Marshall barely won in 2006.  TX-22 is rather obvious and Sam Spade informs us its a highly-partisan district, voting 64%-36% for Bush in 2004.

I think PA-10 is much more vulnerable than GA-08.  GA-08 is used to electing Conservative Democrats while PA-10 is not.

Well considering how vulnerable Marshall was in 2006 and that 2008 is a Presidential year I think he would lose.  He should run for the Senate or begin a serious entrenchment effort. 

Marshall was reelected by 63-37 in 2004, which was a great year for Republicans.  The district has been made five points more Republican since then, so that would now transfer into a 58-42 margin.  I think he'll be OK.

I realise that but for whatever reason in 2006 he was vulnerable.  That means unless he gains new supporters he is probably on the verge of defeat in 2008. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I'd also move CT-04 farther down the list; I think Shays survived his toughest challenge.

I agree with you on that one. The dems won't nominate Diane Farrell again, and the only person who I could think of who might have had a chance against him would be Dannel Malloy from Stamford, but I don't think he would chance it now.

I still cannot reconcile Chris winning in 2006 while Nancy and Rob lost, but I stand firm in my opinion that Shays' chunk of the Nutmeg State will only get more Democratic, not less.  Democrats should stay on top of that one.

And rematches seldom turnout well anyway.  Shays and Gerlach probably could have been beat by a fresh face.

Still, mark Gerlach's 2006 win as "impressive" -- he was supposed to be a sure loser in the type of environment we had.  I'd drop him down on the list to a "lean Republican" category, since its a better district than the one Shays has.

Meanwhile, Republicans should feel good about Georgia.  Republicans would have scored two pickups there had the national mood not been so piss poor.  Marshall and Barrow seem doomed to lose eventually as the GA Democratic Party fades further and further into irrelevance and the GOP continues to steamroll.

Dent and Ferguson seem unlikely targets, but any listing of vulnerable seats should include both New Hampshire seats.  The GOP has a deep bench in the state, and inexplicably, Hodes has weaker favorability numbers than the (IMHO) inherently weak Shea-Porter.

There's no reason for the NH GOP to accept 2006's results as a permanent shift of the partisan landscape.  Even if New Hampshire drifts two or three points to the Democrats, Republicans can still play there.

One warning sign to Democrats going in to 2008: Democrats skillfully exploited their strength in districts that split their vote between a GOP Representative and John Kerry in 2006.  But they exploited that strength so well that there are now somewhere around 8 Dem Representative/George Bush districts for every 1 GOP Representative/John Kerry districts, and most of those GOP/Kerry districts (like, say, Delaware-at-large) are just plain going to be impossible to win without a retirement.

A few other thoughts:

1) Kagen is on thin ice with that ridiculous lie he got caught up in.  That alone might not be enough to sink him, but it shows he has horrible judgement and lackluster political sense.

2) Vern Buchannan will be in terrific shape if Christine Jennings runs again (and are there any doubts she won't?).  Some people need to learn how to just 'let it go.'  And, as an added bonus, Katherine Harris won't drag down Buchannan's numbers in 2008.

If the GOP plays its cards right, they could possibly pick up about ten next year.  If Democrats have a really good run, I could see them gaining maybe two or three net.  Overall, I'm expecting a net gain of about five for the GOP in the House, and unlike 2006, Republicans seem to have a better upside potential than the Democrats do.

NH-02 is not vulnerable.  Kerry won that by about seven points and the district continues to get more and more Democratic. 

As with Georgia, the state was the one state in 2006 that had horrible Democratic turnout.  Barrow's district is nearly majority black so he should be OK.  Marshall knows how to hold on and he should be able to again.  His district is also a third black. 

I sort of agree with you on WI-08.  That has always been a volatile district and can unexpectedly throw out Democratic incumbents.

The Democrats may well pick up several Republican-held Kerry districts due to retirements in 2008; elder members do not want to be part of the minority.

I think New Hampshire underwent a seismic shift in 2006 - I think 2008 will confirm that with both Shea-Porter and Hodes re-elected and Sununu defeated. 

As has already been stated, Barrow should be safer due to the Presidential year, the reverse of Marshall, who will be weakend by it.  Marshall, I maintain, is one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Having read the Wikipedia article on Steve Kagen I am unfortunately convinced that he will certainly be near the top of the most vulnerable Democratic Congressmen in 2008; particularly if Mark Green decides to run for his old seat or if John Gard seeks a rematch.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Yeah, just looked him up. I see he represents OH-7. From a quick glance, it looks like a suburban/rural district, including places like Xenia.

OH-7 gave Bush a 57%-43% victory in 2004.