Rothenberg: Democrats could get to 60 Senate seats by 2010

[Adlai Stevenson]

It is certainly a possibility, albeit a rather slim one.  But imagine if Democrats have somewhere near a 54-55-56 majority in the Senate in January 2009 then in 2010 there are already two possibly vulnerable, possibly retiring Republicans in Ohio and Kentucky with two good Democratic candidates.  Mel Martinez also looks vulnerable at this point.  The Democrats have less vulnerable seats because the Republicans basically anihilated them in the South in the 2002 and 2004 races and other Democratic incumbents are running in neutral or Democratic states in years unpopular for Republicans. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

The idea of South Dakota being seriously contested...Republicans need to let go of that one.  Johnson is running for re-election, is popular and has sympathy for what he has suffered.  He would beat Governor Rounds - even if Rounds ran which seems unlikely.  The Republican bench is pretty shallow in South Dakota.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think the Maine Senate race will be interesting.  There is no other way to describe it; any race is interesting obviously but I really think it could surprise a lot of people.  Regardless of her popularity, Collins has never won big margins.  Look at 2002; a good Republican year, popular as ever and facing an unknown opponent.  She won with less than 60% of the vote.  I think at the very least Allen will reduce her from 58%-42%.  Also, Maine has a history of taking down popular Senators - Margaret Chase Smith in 1972 is an example.  Her opponent went down heavily in 1978 as well.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Regardless of her popularity, Collins has never won big margins.  Look at 2002; a good Republican year, popular as ever and facing an unknown opponent.  She won with less than 60% of the vote.

Actually her opponent was the former Majority Leader of the Maine State Senate.

Fine.  But Allen is more of a top-tier candidate than Pingree was.