Kerry's approval ratings, to put into perspective

[Adlai Stevenson]

Despite Kerry's not all that great approval ratings, he has a 60% approval among Democrats in the latest poll, the primary electorate. That's really all that matters in the primary. So in the primary, he is essentially sitting where the following Senators are in the general:

29    AK    Stevens, Ted    R    Sr    62%    34%    28%
30    WA    Cantwell, Maria    D    Jr    62%    34%    28%
31    WV    Rockefeller, Jay    D    Jr    61%    32%    29%
32    ID    Crapo, Michael    R    Jr    61%    29%    32%
33    AZ    McCain, John    R    Sr    61%    34%    27%
34    SD    Thune, John    R    Jr    61%    36%    25%
35    IN    Bayh, Evan    D    Jr    61%    29%    31%
36    AL    Shelby, Richard    R    Sr    60%    31%    29%
37    VA    Warner, John    R    Sr    60%    28%    32%
38    ID    Craig, Larry    R    Sr    60%    32%    29%
39    NY    Schumer, Charles    D    Sr    60%    33%    27%       
40    NE    Hagel, Chuck    R    Sr    59%    35%    25%
41    OR    Wyden, Ron    D    Sr    59%    33%    26%
42    TX    Hutchison, Kay    R    Sr    59%    35%    24%
43    CA    Feinstein, Dianne    D    Sr    59%    34%    25%        
44    AL    Sessions, Jeff    R    Jr    58%    32%    25%
45    UT    Bennett, Robert    R    Jr    58%    32%    25%
46    MI    Stabenow, Debbie    D    Jr    58%    38%    20%

Basically, Kerry has as much chance of losing the primary as any of those have of losing the general. Anything think Larry Craig or Jay Rockefeller might be in trouble?

A race between Rockefeller and Capito or Ireland would be interesting; particularly in a Presidential year. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

That doesn't meant he would have any chance of losing whatsoever, and that's exactly the reason neither one will run.

I said it would be interesting - not that he would lose.

And thinking about it I don't think Kerry's ratings amongst Democrats now truely reflect the situation in a Primary race.  If he was involved in a divisive Primary battle then they would obviously decrease with the attacks on him by a challenger.  Two-thirds of Democrats approve of Kerry now but if they were faced with a choice it could still be competetive.  Before you jump on me - I am not saying he would lose.  I am saying it would be more competetive as a strong Primary challenger would be bound to draw some voters away from Kerry. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

Besides, what issues would any primary challenger bash Kerry on? Unlike Lamont and Toomey, there is nothing that any challenger can use to turn the base against Kerry. There is also no way to get the grassroots support one needs to even come close. That's why I think this talk of a primary challenge to Kerry is just stupid. Why's no one talking about one to Lautenberg? (in a similiar position)

Voting the for the Iraq War.  A record of incompetance - I think many Democrats and people in Massachusetts have feelings of embrassment and irritation towards Kerry.  His Presidential loss began it, but his subsuquent gaffes as well as real hatred of Bush have done contributed to the situation  also.  Its paradoxical that anti-Bush feeling should rebound on Kerry, but some of the grassroots definitely feel that.