By Aaron Blake
Three of the 10 new senators in the 110th Congress will be making a short trip across the Capitol from the House.
Add in Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), a former congressman who was appointed early this year and retained the seat last month, and it is clear that the conveyer belt from the lower to the upper chamber is fully operational.
And with the 2006 elections only a month in the past, rumors are already circulating about who could be candidates for the same ascent in 2008. Some are making their interest clear early, most are stressing their work in the new Congress first and foremost, and very few are outright dismissing the idea of running in two years.
The House members-turned-senators this year include the winner of one of the four open-seat contests, Rep. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and the number of open seats in 2008 will weigh heavily with many potential candidates. None of the elder senators up in 2008 has bowed out and many insist they will run again.
Several potential candidates have more than $1 million on hand in their post-election financial reports, including Reps. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), John Shimkus (R-Ill.) and Mike Castle (R-Del.).
Udall declared himself a candidate more than a year ago and appears to be the only one to have made it official. But members including Reps. Artur Davis (D-Ala.), Tom Allen (D-Maine), Steve King (R-Iowa), Chip Pickering (R-Miss.) and Tom Davis (R-Va.) have been earnest about their interest in running for Senate.
Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.), who is exiting the House after an unsuccessful bid to win the open Senate seat being vacated by Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), was reported in the Los Angeles Times as saying that he intends to seek the state’s other Senate seat in two years. Ford issued a release last week stating he has no such plans, but he has left the option on the table.
Most potential Senate contenders are taking a similar tack, leaving their options open but not tipping their hands, either.
Castle’s $1.2 million post-election war chest suggests he would have a head start if he were to run for Sen. Joseph Biden Jr.’s (D-Del.) seat should Biden vacate it to run for the presidency. But Castle has customarily kept about $1 million in the bank after an election and said he hasn’t given a 2008 run serious thought.
He also suggested that Biden might not vacate the seat even if he became the Democratic nominee for president, similar to Sen. Joe Lieberman’s (D-Conn.) simultaneous runs for vice president and Senate in 2000.
Castle said he doesn’t want to upset the “delicate balance” in his working relationship with Biden and expressed reservations about taking on a six-year term at his age. The former governor will be 69 in 2008.
He said he is content to wait until 2008 to make a decision, a luxury he has because of his popularity and the small state he represents: “This is my year to focus on work.”
Like Castle, Pickering did not want to cause problems by talking about a possible run for Sen. Thad Cochran’s (R-Miss.) seat should the 69-year-old retire. Cochran’s office has said the senator will decide whether to run for reelection.
Pickering did say, in general terms, that he is interested in running for Senate. “Sure; it’s something that I would consider,” said Pickering, a five-termer whose post-election cash-on-hand was $775,000, more than three times what he had after the 2004 election.
Artur Davis has been open about his interest in running against Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) in 2008 and said he should have a final decision by late spring.
He would have his work cut out for him in the solidly red state, but the New Democratic Caucus co-chairman and member of the Congressional Black Caucus said the “state is changing” and suggested Sessions could be vulnerable for the same reason many Republicans were this year — their support for President Bush.
King has been laying the fundraising and organizational groundwork for a Senate run for four years but said he is not yet in a position to make a decision on whether to run in 2008 against Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa).
King said he wanted to be sensitive to others who might be interested and declined to offer a timetable for his decision. “You know as much about it as my wife,” he said.
Allen, who was rumored to be a potential candidate to run against Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) this year, suggested his odds would be better against Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in 2008 and said he is seriously mulling the bid.
Tom Davis has long been considered a likely candidate should Sen. John Warner (R-Va.), 79, retire, and he has said he is interested in becoming a senator. Warner has indicated he is leaning toward running for a sixth term.
Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Minn.), thought by some to be a potential challenger to Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) in 2008, said she had no plans to run for Senate but didn’t completely rule it out: “I love my job,” she said.
Rep. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) has $750,000 in the bank and could use it in the event that 74-year-old Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) retires. Spokeswoman Marissa Padilla confirmed that Udall would consider running if Domenici retires, but Domenici has said he will run again.
Shimkus’s office did not return calls seeking comment. He has built his post-election cash-on-hand from $120,000 in 2002 to $650,000 in 2004 to more than $1 million this year. But he also is facing controversy for his role in the Mark Foley page scandal as the chairman of the House Page Board, and the House ethics committee’s report, released Friday, criticizes him for not pursuing complaints against Foley aggressively enough.
http://thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/121206.html
