OH: Brown leads DeWine 48-39

[Adlai Stevenson]

Although I would really hope this was true it just seems unbelievable unfortunately, I'd have said it was the other way round: DeWine 48%, Brown 39%.  If Brown led DeWine ever, it would be something like 48%-47%. 

DeWine is in a good position to be in for an Ohio Republican; he's a moderate who can carry begruding conservatives and appeal to enough independents to carry him into office.  Brown is not a particularly personable or forceful politician.  If DeWine's opponent had been Strickland, Ryan or Hackett it would be another matter but sadly not. 

Still good news about Strickland though.  I'm beginning to believe he has a great chance to win a truly unfiying solid victory over Blackwell, in the region of 10%-15% margin which if nothing else will help Brown.  My prediction:

STRICKLAND 55%
BLACKWELL 43%

DEWINE 51%
BROWN 47%

[Adlai Stevenson]

The other poll was something like Brown by 1/2% not 9%.  There is no way Brown is ahead of DeWine by this much.  I don't expect him to lead at all during the campaign unless there is a general turnaround in the electorate or the political landscape.  If Brown wins then it will be an election night swing as Strickland is carrying Ohio and Democrats are taking most competetive Senate seats.  Thats how something like this usually happens.