Adlai Stevenson
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,403
|
|
« on: August 01, 2006, 09:56:08 PM » |
|
This year I am now expecting the Democrats to win the House and possibly the Senate. I can't quote the specific districts, but its obvious that the American people are angry at President Bush and angry at the Republican Congress. The cyclic nature of power means simply that the GOP have become tired and given to corruption in some quarters, invariably, things have not gone right for them after twelve years in Congress and six years in the White House. I think this is enough to give the Democrats control of Congress - everywhere you read about Democratic challengers narrowing margins in polls, every opinion poll shows Americans as a whole support a Democratic takeover of Congress. As someone earlier mentioned, in 1994 a lot of moderate Democrats were defeated. It seems that this year there will be an influx of more moderate and conservative Democrats into the House - if the victory is widespread it will obviously include seats in the South and Midwest which are socially conservative. Finally, I think that the GOP could actually benefit from a Democratic takeover. Opinion polling shows Presidents are always more popular when they face an opposition Congress - Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush and Clinton were all in their time more popular than Bush is; and this is power was divided in Washington. It would seem odd, but Bush's support, particularly amongst conservative evangelicals in the GOP, will see a recovery if he has a liberal Democratic Congress to square up to on push button issues.
|