NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Wisconsin isn’t voting 9 points to the left of Michigan lol

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

According to most polls there has been a shift though… especially in the rust belt.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

They need to poll New Mexico with these AZ/NV numbers. Could actually be decisive if Biden holds up in the Rust Belt and NE02

If Biden wins the rust belt Trump isn’t winning NM.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This crosstabs gang are gonna be busy this summer

Well, if Trump was leading with more realistic crosstabs, I'd take it or at least would be more critical of Democrats not being more effective.

These polls look bad, and I wouldn't just discredit them because it looks that way, on the other hand, there's nothing wrong to closely examine them. As of now, it's undeniable Biden has a lot of work to do in the remaining months.

This is where I’ve always been at. And you can believe Biden has work to put in while also believing he  will win in the end. In fact if anything I’m GLAD the Biden campaign has been working like it has the last few months.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

6 pages… idea we should lock replies in poll threads