I&I/TIPP: Biden +2, +1 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2024, 04:59:44 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election
  2024 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  I&I/TIPP: Biden +2, +1 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: I&I/TIPP: Biden +2, +1  (Read 518 times)
MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,484
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -0.65, S: -1.57

P P P
« on: May 07, 2024, 11:39:35 AM »
Ik They where accurate in 2020 but how accurate where they in 2016?
Logged
MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,484
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -0.65, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2024, 12:18:16 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on May 07, 2024, 11:46:17 AM
Neither candidate above 42% means this poll is worthless. At best, it reaffirms that it's a tossup.
Tilt D is where I have it RN and this poll seems to confirm that.

But yeah polls really need to work on pushing people. I could excuse this in November/December but this is getting ridiculous now.
Logged
MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,484
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -0.65, S: -1.57

P P P
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2024, 12:35:37 PM »
Quote from: kwabbit on May 07, 2024, 12:30:36 PM
Quote from: MR DARK BRANDON on May 07, 2024, 12:18:16 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on May 07, 2024, 11:46:17 AM
Neither candidate above 42% means this poll is worthless. At best, it reaffirms that it's a tossup.
Tilt D is where I have it RN and this poll seems to confirm that.

But yeah polls really need to work on pushing people. I could excuse this in November/December but this is getting ridiculous now.

Biden +2 or +1 would be tossup or tilt Trump. 538 has the Trump EC advantage at 1.7 at the moment. Trump +1 nationally, Trump +2.7 in WI. The EC advantage has been gradually building as Biden has improved more nationally than in the Rust Belt (expected given that Biden's increased support from non-Whites has fueled the national improvement).

Oh yeah I agree it would be a tossup, tilt basically means tossup I think part of Biden’s stronger improvements nationally than in states is that we haven’t gotten a whole lot of high quality state polling yet. But even the rust belt is far tighter than a few months back.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.026 seconds with 14 queries.