2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

The DCCC released its offensive target list for 2022 yesterday:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1379424480259362818

It's obviously a much more limited list of seats (mostly just close losses in 2020), though there are a few districts that seem like possible redistricting targets - as well as ignoring several seats where redistricting will take once competitive seats off the table.

The four California seats and TX-24 are by far the five easiest targets on the list (not counting AZ-02, which shouldn't really be on there to begin with). I have an extremely hard time seeing any of the others flipping in a neutral or GOP-favorable midterm, aside from NY redistricting shaking things up there.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Sabato put out an interesting article on how they'd hypothetically rate House seats if the same lines were being used in 2022:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1395345933878145026

Not a terrible list, but there are a few eyebrow-raising choices. For one, I don't see how you can justify classifying NY-24 as Lean R when they are clearly (and reasonably) assuming a GOP-friendly national environment.

CA-25 and CA-39 certainly would be the first two Democratic pickups, though. You could make an argument to move TX-24 to the tossup category as well, simply given the district's trajectory and van Duyne's personal controversies. Having TX-24 and NY-24 in the same category is pretty absurd.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I don't agree with PA-07 being Lean R. Even in this environment, Wild is a strong incumbent and Scheller already lost in 2020 and nearly lost her primary this year to an unknown opponent despite having unlimited cash

Under the new Redistricting Lines drawn PA-7 is waaay more Republican compared to 2020. You have to take this into account too.

It's only Trump by a few points isn't it? Where it was Biden by a few in 2020? I don't think it changed that dramatically where it still wouldn't be a toss-up. This is a tough year for Wild in a semi-tougher district but Scheller is not a great candidate.

It went from Biden +5 to Biden +1