Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Looks like Gina Ortiz Jones actually kept TX-23 really close, but it won't quite be enough.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Anyone have an idea as to the final results in GA-06 or GA-07? Currently, McBath is up 1.0% and Woodall is up 0.4%.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Nevada did it again, with Rosen and Sisolak winning pretty handily and outperforming Clinton and Cortez Masto.

But I'm sure that in four years we'll all be panicking about Cortez Masto polling within the margin of error.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

I think so. It seems like Walters is the only vulnerable CA Republican who is more likely than not to win, but even she might barely lose when all of the votes are counted.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I'm not sure if NYT is actively updating their forecast, but 229 seats for the Democrats seems way too conservative at this point. They currently have 225 secured, and NJ-03, CA-25, UT-04, NY-22, and CA-48 are quite likely to flip (NYT has all of the Democrats leading but none declared the victors). That's already 230, and that's not to mention the strong possibility that some combination of CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, and/or even GA-07 or TX-27 flip.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Scott is currently giving a press conference about voting discrepancies in Palm Beach and Broward... I’ve only seen a couple minutes, but he said that Nelson is trying to “steal the election from the people of Florida” and made sure to mention that he is utilizing “Hillary Clinton’s lawyers.” Despicable!

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

The Salt Lake Tribune has basically written Love's obituary and predicts that the race will be called later today: https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/08/rep-mia-love-could-still/

I almost feel bad that only black GOP congresswoman loses when most of her white male colleagues, most of whom are more ideologically reprehensible than her, get to have another term... but obviously I would much rather have McAdams in Congress, so this is a pleasantly surprising result. I knew it would be very close, but I would assigned it a Tilt R rating before a Tilt D one.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Looks like Democrats will have a 45-8 majority in the CA congressional delegation and an 11-1 majority in the NJ congressional delegation. Pretty impressive consolidation of federal representation in these two states.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Well either McSally (likeliest) or Sinema are going to run in 2020 for senator again. That's clear. If you're so close, you'll definitely try again.

There's a decent chance that both McSally and Sinema are senators after this year.  Some folks been saying that if McSally loses, Senator Kyl will resign so that Governor Ducey can pick McSally as his replacement.  I heard that a while ago, but it wouldn't surprise me.  I don't think McSally would fare well in a 2020 campaign though.

I agree with this, and I don't think the GOP will view her as a particularly strong candidate either if she ends up losing this race, which is almost certain at this point. Sinema wasn't a weak candidate but wasn't exactly some god-tier recruit either, so if 2020 has a comparable national environment to 2018 and a decent Democratic presidential nominee, someone like Stanton should probably be favored.