It obviously depends on the candidate, but potentially interesting states for me include:
Alaska: Alaska has been trending blue for multiple election cycles now, and it's always been a little bizarre politically overall (lots of successful independent candidates, etc.). Many believe that Alaska will become a competitive state within 15-20 years, so I'm curious whether as to this will actually come to fruition or not.
Arizona: For somewhat obvious reasons. Arizona is shaping up to be a competitive state in 2020, but it has to proven whether Democrats can exceed Clinton's numbers enough to actually win there, even if they improve on her national margin, or if Democrats has hit their ceiling there for now. I would assume that the right Democratic candidate could certainly have a solid chance of victory here, but I won't believe it until I see it.
Texas/Georgia: Neither of these states will likely be particularly competitive in 2020 (although Georgia
could be with a perfect Democratic candidate), but they notably trended left in 2016. I want to see whether they will continue to move left at a similar rate, for the sake of predicting whether either or both states could be purely swing states by 2028 or so.
Utah: I'm including Utah just if there is an independent who ran last year, like McMullin (I don't know if McMullin personally is planning to run again), who can garner a large percent of the vote and create some drama.
Iowa: Iowa had one of the largest swings/trends of any state in 2016, sharply turning to the right. In '00, '04, '08, and '12, Iowa was slightly more Democratic than the nation as a whole, but in '16, it was significantly more Republican (approx. R+10.5, I don't remember the exact number). That's a very large swing, but I don't believe that Iowa is a lost case for Democrats yet. Obama won Iowa by over 10% in '08 and over 5% in '12, and Hillary was arguably a particularly poor candidate for the state, so it's still easily plausible that the right Democrat could make Iowa competitive again. Long story short, I want to know if Iowa has shifted to the right and is there to stay for a while, or if 2016 was more of a fluke and it will return to its more competitive status in 2020.
ME-02: More or less the same reason as I included Iowa.
New Hampshire: It trended to the right in 2016, but many on this forum believe NH has the potential to become a Likely/Safe D state within a matter of several years. I'm curious as to whether NH will move back to being more Democratic than the nation as a whole or continue on this new trajectory (I believe the former is more likely, but we'll see).
West Virginia: There very well may be not much to see in West Virginia in 2020, given that Trump is still decently popular there, but Republicans may have hit their ceiling here in national races and the state may be due for a bounce to the left.
