Can we put the kibosh on the Bradley effect?

[MarkWarner08]

WITH only two weeks to go before the election, talk has turned to the Bradley effect. The phenomenon is named for Tom Bradley, the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, who lost the 1982 California governor’s race even though exit polls predicted he’d defeat his Republican opponent, George Deukmejian. Some white people, the theory goes, tell pollsters they will vote for black candidates and then, once in the voting booth, don’t.
...

But he wasn’t losing because of race. He was losing because an unpopular gun control initiative and an aggressive Republican absentee ballot program generated hundreds of thousands of Republican votes no pollster anticipated, giving Mr. Deukmejian a narrow victory.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/opinion/20levin.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

Isn't it time to put this misnomer to rest? Recent example: Harold Ford performing at or above pre-election polls in a Southern state.

[MarkWarner08]

why did Obama lose NH?  (serious question, not rhetorical)

1. Voters in NH wanted to continue to the race (NHers are fickle and take their votes seriously).

2. Hillary connected with voters after Iowa. While Obama was enjoying his newly awarded media halo, Hillary was finally taking questions from voters and began to connect with her audiences. E.g., the famous (near) crying moment.

3. Obama was always stronger in Iowa, than he was in NH. The record short gap between the two states' elections made it difficult for Obama to barnstorm the state. 

4. Race was the possible factor in the rural areas.

Race was the fourth most  important factor.

[MarkWarner08]

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

Gross generalization there, pal. Obama also didn't connect socially with many of those voters. You can't ascribe racial motivations to why Hillary won in Ohio, for example. She had a longer track record of supporting pro-union issues and she was popular with older women, who voted in record numbers.

[MarkWarner08]

And there's also the fact it was no problem for Obama in the primaries.

Democratic primary

Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

Gross generalization there, pal.

It's not. I'm definitely not saying that race is the only reason why Hillary did so well in the primaries.

Race as a political issue was most salient to a small sliver of the electorate. It may have been decisive in NH, but Hillary likely would've won Ohio and PA without the racial vote. Alas, there's no reliable way to poll this question. In the border region of Texas, older Hispanic women voted heavily for HRC.

Was it identity politics, fear of a black man in the White House, support for Hillary's crusade for universal health care, or all of the above? Who knows.

[MarkWarner08]

Race was the fourth most  important factor.

It had nothing to do with the rural vs. suburban areas. Western NH (which is very rural) went strongly for Obama. 

Well, thanks for refreshing my memory about that.