MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,812
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« on: October 13, 2008, 11:04:24 PM » |
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Dahlkemper has several advantages over most novice candidates. 1). Her family owns several well-known local businesses, therefore she enjoys built-in name ID. 2.) She matches the district well. She's a pro-life, pro-guns, economic populist. 3). She has no track record. English's negative ads have been pathetic (e.g., "Dahlkemper hasn't released her income tax returns) and haven't resonated with voters. Her lack of a voting record, which could be twisted for the purposes of a negative ad, impedes English's ability to go negative effectively. 4). English's support is soft. After the first two flights of DCCC ads, English's approval numbers have dipped into the negative zone.
For all these reasons, I've moved PA-03 into the Pure Tossup category.
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