GOP Congressional Wipeout Is the Buzz, and the End Is Near [Liddy Dole is Toast]

[MarkWarner08]

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

The main cause of Hayes' woes has been the DCCC's aggressive spending in the NC-08. Over $600k spent in September and early October alone, and they've allotted over $1 million more for negative TV ads. By the end of this campaign, Hayes will have been sunk by the DCCC. if the national Democrats had been matched dollar-for-dollar by the NRCC or outspent by the NRCC, Hayes would likely be a favorite today. This is one district where the D-trip's CoH advantage may be the pivotal factor.

[MarkWarner08]

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

The main cause of Hayes' woes has been the DCCC's aggressive spending in the NC-08. Over $600k spent in September and early October alone, and they've allotted over $1 million more for negative TV ads. By the end of this campaign, Hayes will have been sunk by the DCCC. if the national Democrats had been matched dollar-for-dollar by the NRCC or outspent by the NRCC, Hayes would likely be a favorite today. This is one district where the D-trip's CoH advantage may be the pivotal factor.

You have a point, but I really sense anti-incumbency as a major factor in NC right now (or at least that's what my gut tells me).  After all, in this environment, why is McCrory clearly ahead of Perdue?

That's an interesting point about the governor's race. Perdue is essentially the proxy incumbent, so it logically follows that she would suffer in an anti-incumbent year. It would be ironic if Obama, McCrory and Hagan all won in NC. A year ago, each one of those candidates was the decided underdog.

[MarkWarner08]

Yes.  NC also appears to be in anti-incumbent mode (in NC-08, Hayes is really hurting, for example).  That may yet shift, but who knows.

The main cause of Hayes' woes has been the DCCC's aggressive spending in the NC-08. Over $600k spent in September and early October alone, and they've allotted over $1 million more for negative TV ads. By the end of this campaign, Hayes will have been sunk by the DCCC. if the national Democrats had been matched dollar-for-dollar by the NRCC or outspent by the NRCC, Hayes would likely be a favorite today. This is one district where the D-trip's CoH advantage may be the pivotal factor.

You have a point, but I really sense anti-incumbency as a major factor in NC right now (or at least that's what my gut tells me).  After all, in this environment, why is McCrory clearly ahead of Perdue?

That's an interesting point about the governor's race. Perdue is essentially the proxy incumbent, so it logically follows that she would suffer in an anti-incumbent year. It would be ironic if Obama, McCrory and Hagan all won in NC. A year ago, each one of those candidates was the decided underdog.

btw, I'm going to try to do my House update this afternoon (finally).  Senate is done.  You and I disagree on a couple of races, but not big differences in my view.  I'll bump when complete.

How's Rice going?

My classes are going well and I'm enjoying college life. The one downside is that I don't have as much time to carefully track the down-ballot races.  This forum really is an invaluable resource for a time-strapped college student.