NC-Sen: DSCC spending $8,100,000!

[MarkWarner08]

The DSCC has expanded their initial $5 million ad buy to a $7 million ad deluge. The national Democrats are already running $1 million in ads against Dole. If Musgrove collapses in the polls over the corruption scandal, NC could replace it as the long shot cause celebre of the DSCC. http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2502192.html

[MarkWarner08]

The latest DSCC ad uses humor to sting Liddy Dole.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91l_h7UpQcs

I think this ad is brilliant. So far, the DSCC ads in Oregon have been mediocre and borderline intellectually dishonest. The MS ads have also been so-so. This ad, on the other hand, drives home Liddy Dole's ineffectiveness without going harshly negative. Great ad.

[MarkWarner08]

I've seen a different ad attacking Dole by the DSCC.

They just launched this ad today. The "93 ad" has been running for a few weeks now.

What kind of drunken sailor drops $8,100,000 on a longshot?

A very rich drunken sailor. You can thank the incompetence of the NRSC finance department and the fundraising prowess of my man Chuck Schumer for the cash gap between the two committees. That gap gives Schumer the leeway to drop serious coin in long shots like NC.

Using humor is great ploy in a TV ad. It disarms the voter and allows the message to subconsciously permeate the voter's consciousness. The visuals of two old men supine in rocking chairs outside a rural market was well thought out. These everyman spokesmen reinforce the message about "93" and "92," the negative frame about Dole, with a smile, not a sneer. This ad should be effective with swing voters.

[MarkWarner08]

How much does 5-7 points in NC cost?  Or is there a dollar figure one can attach to it?

Schumer seems ready to spend $8 million to bump her up to 47% or 48%. I just don't see how she can cross the 48% mark.

I wonder how many TV points that translates to. Reid Wilson wrote that Vern Buchanan just made a 14,350 point ad buy.

[MarkWarner08]

The DSCC has plenty of money, they can afford it.

I know they think they have 5 seats close to locked up (VA, NM, NH, CO & AK) and have a few others they will potentially pour money into (OR, MS, NC, ME, MN).

They won't even need to spend any money in VA or NM, either.

I love this bizarre mass delusion on here that the DSCC has unlimited money and that the Republicans have none.

Moderate, I get  it. Once the RNC concludes that McCain can't win, they'll shift their IEs to help in Senate races -- just like they did after Dole bombed in '96.

[MarkWarner08]

It shows that they are trying the 50 state game, it can't hurt, it makes the RNC spend money it races they normally wouldn't

It can hurt, and the RNC won't be investing a single dime in most of these races because the GOP incumbents are already flush with more cash than the Democrats should be willing to match.

You're right. That is the elephant in the room. The DSCC's CoH = vulnerable GOP incumbents' CoH + NRSC's CoH. If you include the Democratic challengers' cash, the Democrats have a narrow money edge.

But slim money edge should not lead them to spend coin in GA, when OR and MN may be slipping away. I  sometimes worry that my man Schumer's white whale is the 60 seat mark. If the Ds get to 58 or 59, they can still place on Specter and Snowe to vote for the EFCA.