Oklahoma Primary on Tuesday

[MarkWarner08]

So Rice ended up with 58% against the perennial candidate.  The only showing more pathetic for a Dem challenger I can think of was Rick Noriega's barely escaping the runoff back in March.

But wasn't he the first TX Democrat to escape a run-off in decade or so? Otherwise, I agree that he probably should've won with 60%-70%. He'll probably win around 44% in November, regardless of how much he spends. If only that trial lawyer Watts had stayed. Maybe his money would've kept the race close...

[MarkWarner08]

So Rice ended up with 58% against the perennial candidate.  The only showing more pathetic for a Dem challenger I can think of was Rick Noriega's barely escaping the runoff back in March.

But wasn't he the first TX Democrat to escape a run-off in decade or so? Otherwise, I agree that he probably should've won with 60%-70%. He'll probably win around 44% in November, regardless of how much he spends. If only that trial lawyer Watts had stayed. Maybe his money would've kept the race close...

True, but Hillary also had Hispanic turnout along the border at GE levels.

Regardless, once again we're really arguing about whether Noriega finishes with 40% to 45% of the vote here.  Same thing for Rice (maybe a point or two lower).  Next.

There's no way Noreiga wins only 40% of the vote. Even that Morales guy won 44% against Gramm in 1996... I agree that it's just splitting hairs, because both will probably lose by at least ten points.

[MarkWarner08]

So Rice ended up with 58% against the perennial candidate.  The only showing more pathetic for a Dem challenger I can think of was Rick Noriega's barely escaping the runoff back in March.

But wasn't he the first TX Democrat to escape a run-off in decade or so? Otherwise, I agree that he probably should've won with 60%-70%. He'll probably win around 44% in November, regardless of how much he spends. If only that trial lawyer Watts had stayed. Maybe his money would've kept the race close...

True, but Hillary also had Hispanic turnout along the border at GE levels.

Regardless, once again we're really arguing about whether Noriega finishes with 40% to 45% of the vote here.  Same thing for Rice (maybe a point or two lower).  Next.

There's no way Noreiga wins only 40% of the vote. Even that Morales guy won 44% against Gramm in 1996... I agree that it's just splitting hairs, because both will probably lose by at least ten points.

Morales ran a better campaign than you give him credit for.  Populist outsider campaigns actually work fairly well in Texas - he ran extremely well in rural areas, well enough to make the race pretty close if the year was 1966 and not 1996.  The reason why he lost by 10% had to do with Gramm extremely well in old-line Houston and Dallas suburbs (not to mention suburban areas in general - better than Bush did in 2004).

Still, you are quite right in that it will be closer to 45% than 40% most likely.

Interesting.

Back to the OK primary: If only Brad Henry were running against Inhofe....