MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,812
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« on: June 06, 2008, 12:30:42 AM » |
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Some background info: In 2006, Democrats netted three new House seats from Indiana. One of the earliest supporters of Baron Hill's comeback bid and the Democratic challenges in IN-02 and IN-08 was Evan Bayh. When the national pundits were downplaying the competitiveness of IN-02, Bayh held several early fundraisers for nine point 2004 loser Joe Donnelly. While Bayh was raising funds for these House Democratic candidates, he was also out filling his campaign coffers -- all the way up to $10+ million for a likely '08 POTUS bid.
Whichever party controls the the Governorship and one of Indiana's two legislative chambers will control redistricting. With the State Senate firmly in Republican hands and the State House split 51/49 in favor of the Democrats, the tiebreaker is the Governorship. If Mitch Daniels wins, the GOP is a lock to control redistricting. A Democratic gubernatorial win and a 2010 hold on the Hosue will allow them to gerrymander.
While many Democrats groaned when their party nominated Jill Long Thompson, Indiana's version of Harold Stassen, those groans have been quieted by the entrance of a far-right third part candidate who is intent on sapping support from Mitch Daniels. Beyond the usual statewide implications, a Long Thompson win could save the Democrats come redistricting time. This matters because a couple of excised precincts in IN-02, the subtraction of Bloomington from IN-09 and some tweaking of IN-08 will restore the GOP's commanding 7-2 House delegation advantage.
Since Bayh has passed on the Presidential race and is unlikely to need his money for at least four years, it is now up to him to assert his role as leader of the IN Democratic Party and save his three Democratic House allies.
Atlas forumites, do you agree that Bayh must embrace Long Thompson and hope that his popularity can help carry the Democratic nominee to victory?
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