According to SUSA, Hillary beat Obama by 24% among those who already voted. That group amounts to around 23% of the voters surveyed. If those numbers remain the same, Obama will need to beat Hillary by >5% on Election Day to win in CA.
Oh boy, I had forgotten about early voting.
Obama may be screwed if that's true.
TPM:
With more than a fifth of the Feb. 5 delegates, California is Super Tuesday's richest prize. The state has long been a Clinton stronghold — so much so that her California campaign director already has predicted victory.
"We've got it," director Ace Smith said, noting that the campaign has already met or exceeded early voting targets that are considered a strong indicator of primary day performance. About half of the state's Democrats are expected to cast absentee ballots, and many began nearly a month ago, on Jan. 7.California's done. If Obama wins cuts Clinton's winning margin to 5% or less, that'll help with delegates.
