IA-3: Former Gubernatorial candidate Ed Fallon to challenge Boswell in Primary

[MarkWarner08]

Jeff Lamberti should've waited till 2008... Now that he's no longer in the State Senate, doesn't he have more free time to explore a run for Congress?

[MarkWarner08]

Methinks that this seat is more likely to fall (whether Boswell reaches the General Election or not) than almost all of the Democrat gains of 2006.

While that may be a little of an overstatement, I completely concur with your view of Boswell's vulnerability. His 2006 performance was dismal for a three-term incumbent running in the best year for Iowa Democrats in half a century.

If the GOP can recruit a strong candidate (paging Jeff Lamberti...), Boswell, who's grown increasingly ornery and distant from his district in recent years, could face a stiff reelection challenge.

[MarkWarner08]

Methinks that this seat is more likely to fall (whether Boswell reaches the General Election or not) than almost all of the Democrat gains of 2006.

While that may be a little of an overstatement, I completely concur with your view of Boswell's vulnerability. His 2006 performance was dismal for a three-term incumbent running in the best year for Iowa Democrats in half a century.

If the GOP can recruit a strong candidate (paging Jeff Lamberti...), Boswell, who's grown increasingly ornery and distant from his district in recent years, could face a stiff reelection challenge.

Do you think that a more active Democrat would have an easier time holding IA-03 than Boswell? 

Yes, I'd argue a Democrat who more closely paid attends the needs of  this district would likely be less vulnerable to defeat. However, since this district is essentially a 50/50 swing district, no Democrat can take it for granted.

[MarkWarner08]

Methinks that this seat is more likely to fall (whether Boswell reaches the General Election or not) than almost all of the Democrat gains of 2006.

While that may be a little of an overstatement, I completely concur with your view of Boswell's vulnerability. His 2006 performance was dismal for a three-term incumbent running in the best year for Iowa Democrats in half a century.

If the GOP can recruit a strong candidate (paging Jeff Lamberti...), Boswell, who's grown increasingly ornery and distant from his district in recent years, could face a stiff reelection challenge.

Do you think that a more active Democrat would have an easier time holding IA-03 than Boswell? 

Yes, I'd argue a Democrat who more closely paid attends the needs of  this district would likely be less vulnerable to defeat. However, since this district is essentially a 50/50 swing district, no Democrat can take it for granted.

I would think that any Democrat would likely hold this seat in 2008 if Democrats carry Iowa in the Presidential race. 

If the GOP recruits Lamberti and Boswell barely wins a bitter Democrats primary, this district could go Republican regardless of the way Iowa is voting in the Presidential election. Since that scenario is still remote at this point, I'd agree that this seat still leans Democratic.

[MarkWarner08]

Methinks that this seat is more likely to fall (whether Boswell reaches the General Election or not) than almost all of the Democrat gains of 2006.

Well, the Republicans have to first get an opponent before March 14.

Do they not have one yet? In a natural marginal with a weak incumbent and which actually swing to them in a year in which they were mauled in Iowa? Amazing.

Politics1 says State Senator Brad Zaun is considering a challenge, but little has been heard about this since May. Cyclone Conservative, a grassroots Iowa Republican blog, speculates Lamberti and Stan Thompson (Boswell's 2002 and 2004 challengers) may also run.

[MarkWarner08]

Methinks that this seat is more likely to fall (whether Boswell reaches the General Election or not) than almost all of the Democrat gains of 2006.

Well, the Republicans have to first get an opponent before March 14.

Do they not have one yet? In a natural marginal with a weak incumbent and which actually swing to them in a year in which they were mauled in Iowa? Amazing.

Nope.  I expect one will arrive, but he may not be that strong.

Do you think Lamberti or Thompson could pose a threat to Boswell's chances?  I think that if either one runs against Boswell, IA-03 will host the most competitive House race in Iowa.