list of GOP retirements?

[MarkWarner08]

can anyone provide a list of GOP congresspeople that have announced their retirement?

AL-02     Everett    R     R+13.2     Will retire
AZ-01    Renzi        R+2.2    Will resign
CA-52    Hunter           R+9.3    Running for President
CO-06 Tancredo       R +10.0   Running for President
IL-11    Weller              R+1.1        Retiring
IL-14    Hastert    R+4.8       Retiring
IL-18    LaHood        R+5.5        Retiring
MN-03    Ramstad    R+0.5    Retiring
MS-03    Pickering    R+14.1       Retiring
NM-01    Wilson           D+2.4        Running for Senate
NM-02   Pearce        R+6                Running for Senate
OH-05:  Gillmor      R +10.1             Deceased
OH-07:  Hobson    R +6.0               Retiring
OH-16: Regula         R +3.6             Retiring
OH-15    Pryce       R+1.1       Retiring
NJ-03  Saxton       D +3.3              Retiring
NJ-07 Ferguson          R+1 Retiring to become filthly rich.
WY-AL Cubin              R+19          Retiring


Eight of the 18 open GOP seats are considered marginal.
Democrats could net 6-9 seats from this list.

Top Dem targets:
OH-15
MN-03
NM-01
NJ-07
IL-11
AZ-01
OH-16
NJ-03

2nd tier Democratic targets:
IL-14
NM-02
IL-18
OH-07
WY-AL   

Targets for  masochistic Democratic strategists:
AL-02     
CA-52           
CO-06 
MS-03    
OH-05
       

[MarkWarner08]

can anyone provide a list of GOP congresspeople that have announced their retirement?

Targets for  masochistic Democratic strategists:
AL-02     
CA-52           
CO-06 
MS-03    
OH-05     

OH-05 is definitely a GOP favored seat but it remains to be seen whether or not they can recover from their cut-throat primary.  AS MA-05 proved, no seat is truly "safe" when it comes to special elections and the Democrats have a solid candidate running in OH-05 who could realistically pull an upset.  I still think the GOP will win, but I wouldn't consider this a lost cause for Democrats until after the special election next month.

If Bob Latta wins the special election, barring a 1964 redux in 2008, OH-05 seems safe for the GOP. The Democratic candidate in this district, Robin Weirauch,  seems like a lesser version of the infamously feckless Francine Busby.

[MarkWarner08]

If I was a really insane man with a sick betting side, I'd be tempted to make the wager that by the time election day rolls around in 2008, NM-01 will be below NM-02 on your list. 

As it is right now, NM-02 should be up a level and WY-AL and OH-07 should be off the list (OH-07 mainly b/c the GOP will have an excellent candidate there).

Sheriff White does match the archetype of the macho man turned Congressman. It worked well in swing districts like WA-08, IN-08 and NY-24.  I agree that the general will be quite competitive, but I attribute that largely to the comparative strength of the GOP candidate.

While futurology is an uneven science, at best, sometimes predicting technological advancements  is more accurate than trying to prognosticate about congressional elections. Who could've guessed in 2005 that OH-02 and WY-AL would play host to closer races than did CT-04 and PA-06, which were home to two of the closest incumbent reelections in 2004.

That said, I think NM-01 and NM-02 will parallel the 2006 election results in NV-02 and NV-03. While the Democrats had an arguably stronger candidate in NV-02 and will have a top-notch candidate in NM-02, the district's partisan tendency dominate the electoral  outcome. This helps explain why Tessa Hafen, an inexperienced mediocre fundraiser, nearly toppled savvy swing district incumbent Jon Porter.

The Democrats' fourth choice candidate in NV-03 is a Clark County Proesceutor Robert Daskas.  Typically, being a the 4th choice for a job is not a ringing endorsement. In the case of Daskas, this has more to do with the strength of the Democratic bench than it has to do with Daskas' shortcomings as a candidate. The expected up swell in Hispanics registering to vote for the Presidential 's election is sure to benefit the Democrat in this district.





For now:
NM-01: Toss-up/tilts Republican
NM-02: Leans Republican
NV-03: Toss-up/ tilts Republican

[MarkWarner08]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcxDPJ5a5oQ&eurl=http://www.nmfbihop.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=493
Words can't describe this video.

[MarkWarner08]

Candidates may have something to do with it, but the inner dynamics of NM-01 and NM-02 are very different than the Nevada districts. 

Also, in 2006, don't underestimate the helpful impact of Hafen being a Mormon in a highly Mormon area (comparison to US).  Harry Reid wouldn't still be a Senator without that factoid.

IMHO, NV-03 is highly likely to be under both New Mexico districts in terms of competitiveness come 2008.

I wasn't implying that the NM pair and the NV duo were congruent districts demographically and politically. I was using the comparison based largely on PVI, not on district makeup.

Oddly enough, Hafen rarely played up her Mormonism. Wouldn't you agree that district trends favor Democrats? This district was drawn to be as competitive as a seat like CO-07. Finally, do you downgrade this race's competiveness because of the Democratic candidate? Daskas is about as well-known as White and the former has a more moderate track record, too.

[MarkWarner08]

Candidates may have something to do with it, but the inner dynamics of NM-01 and NM-02 are very different than the Nevada districts. 

Also, in 2006, don't underestimate the helpful impact of Hafen being a Mormon in a highly Mormon area (comparison to US).  Harry Reid wouldn't still be a Senator without that factoid.

IMHO, NV-03 is highly likely to be under both New Mexico districts in terms of competitiveness come 2008.

Maybe he wouldnt have been elected in the first place, but your assumption that he still wouldnt be a senator has only minimal grounds.

I think Sam Spade's referring to Reid's 428 vote victory in 1998. In a race that close, a multitude of factors could've played the deciding role.

[MarkWarner08]

If I was a really insane man with a sick betting side, I'd be tempted to make the wager that by the time election day rolls around in 2008, NM-01 will be below NM-02 on your list. 

As it is right now, NM-02 should be up a level and WY-AL and OH-07 should be off the list (OH-07 mainly b/c the GOP will have an excellent candidate there).

Sheriff White does match the archetype of the macho man turned Congressman. It worked well in swing districts like WA-08, IN-08 and NY-24.  I agree that the general will be quite competitive, but I attribute that largely to the comparative strength of the GOP candidate.

While futurology is an uneven science, at best, sometimes predicting technological advancements  is more accurate than trying to prognosticate about congressional elections. Who could've guessed in 2005 that OH-02 and WY-AL would play host to closer races than did CT-04 and PA-06, which were home to two of the closest incumbent reelections in 2004.

That said, I think NM-01 and NM-02 will parallel the 2006 election results in NV-02 and NV-03. While the Democrats had an arguably stronger candidate in NV-02 and will have a top-notch candidate in NM-02, the district's partisan tendency dominate the electoral  outcome. This helps explain why Tessa Hafen, an inexperienced mediocre fundraiser, nearly toppled savvy swing district incumbent Jon Porter.

The Democrats' fourth choice candidate in NV-03 is a Clark County Proesceutor Robert Daskas.  Typically, being a the 4th choice for a job is not a ringing endorsement. In the case of Daskas, this has more to do with the strength of the Democratic bench than it has to do with Daskas' shortcomings as a candidate. The expected up swell in Hispanics registering to vote for the Presidential 's election is sure to benefit the Democrat in this district.





For now:
NM-01: Toss-up/tilts Republican
NM-02: Leans Republican
NV-03: Toss-up/ tilts Republican

You would seriously rate NM-01 as Tossup/tilt Republican?  This is a district that will likely go for Hillary Clinton and handily for Tom Udall.  I don't think any Republican can buck that current unless they are an incumbent. 

The GOP has recruited their number one candidate in this district. When I make predictions about Congressional races, I place a premium on candidate recruitment. That's part of the reason why I was right early on about Heath Shuler toppling Charles Taylor in NC-11 but wrong about Jim Leach losing to some unknown college professor. In wave elections, as you are well aware, candidates who shouldn't win, can win. The laws of political gravity are obeyed in non-wave election cycles. Since it's unlikely to 2008 will be as strong of a partisan year as 2006, I believe that candidate recruitment will rise in importance.

When one looks at NM-01, one finds a swing district with a slight Democratic lean that some how has been represented by Republicans for over three decades. Seems like prime Democratic pick-up territory, right? While on paper this district is Democratic, it's many politically nuances, as Sam Spade can attest, make its political makeup a little less predictable than one may think. Martin Heinrich, the likely Democratic candidate, is neither a Hispanic nor a   moderate. This will leave him vulnerable in a mostly moderate, Hispanic district like NM-01.

The way the Democrats win this race is by playing up the immigration issue. It worked in TX-23, a district replete with culturally conservative Chicanos who soured on the GOP after the Sensenbrenner bill. If Heinrich is the candidate with a reasonable position of immigration (ie., a balance between enforcement and incentives), the Democrats will likely win. Otherwise, Sheriff White will become bosom buddies with Sheriff-turned-Congressman Reichert, who also represents a nominally Democratic district.