ME-Senate: Collins leads Allen by 20

[MarkWarner08]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

On Election Day? Seriously? Tom Allen /= Chellie Pingree. 2002 /= 2008.

I still think Collins, like Smith and Coleman, has a strong edge over he Democratic foe. But it's ludicrous to say Collins is a 13-18 point favorite.

[MarkWarner08]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

It will be Collins by 7-9. 

What was your prediction for the Dewine-Brown race at this point in the last cycle? Brown by 12? I don't think so. Predicting Senate races this far out is foolhardy.

[MarkWarner08]

I think this will continue to tighten up significantly by next November, but Collins will still win.

I agree with the "tighten up" part, but not with the "significantly" part.

Collins by 13–18.

On Election Day? Seriously? Tom Allen /= Chellie Pingree. 2002 /= 2008.

I still think Collins, like Smith and Coleman, has a strong edge over he Democratic foe. But it's ludicrous to say Collins is a 13-18 point favorite.

Coleman shouldnt be in the same category as Smith's lousy race. Coleman is only up by about 5-10 points. Smith's probably up by at least 15-20. Coleman has top challengers, too, with money.

Coleman has two challengers: a clown and a trial lawyer. When Republican strategists think up who'd they'd like to run against, Mike Ciresi and Al Franken must be high up on their list.

Smith: He'll either have a poorly funded progressive challenger with some great accomplishments in the public sector or a poorly funded progressive challenger with some great accomplishments in the private sector. Either way he's the favorite. A 15-20 point favorite? C'mon. He couldn't even beat Bradbury, an amiable fellow with a terrible campaign staff running in year overshadowed by 9/11, by 20 points. How's he going to best that margin against Jeff Merkley?

Collins: Pingree is not Tom Collins. She's not a smart, likable Democrat with a strong electoral base. She was at times caustic on the campaign trail and ran a miserable campaign.

[MarkWarner08]

Should Allen win this, feel free to call me out come November 2008 and make me eat my hat.

A year before the election, did you pick DeWine and Allen to lose? How about Conrad Burns? Did you jump off his bandwagon, too? Remember that he come a few thousand votes away from victory.

[MarkWarner08]

And you used to be a political reporter? Completely ridiculous. We all know by election day, Allen will not lose at the same margin as Pingree. Most "political reporters" seem to know that elections tighten up as the election nears.

You should be the political reporter.  We all know by Election Day, Harris had closed the gap against Bill Nelson; Kennedy had closed the gap against Klobuchar; and Ricketts had closed the gap against Ben Nelson.  Whoops, I already posted about that tonight.

If you want to insult someone, try not to say something so stupid silly.

When did Harris make serious inroads in Bill Nelson's lead? Benator was safe for most of the campaign. Kloubchar, not Kennedy, had the biggest poll movement (upward) in the last couple months of the campaign.

[MarkWarner08]

On Election Day? Seriously? Tom Allen /= Chellie Pingree. 2002 /= 2008.

I still think Collins, like Smith and Coleman, has a strong edge over he Democratic foe. But it's ludicrous to say Collins is a 13-18 point favorite.

As Nelson-Ricketts and Kyl-Pederson demonstrated, frittering away a lot of money is no guarantee of a close race.

What do Ricketts and Pederson have in common? They were both neophyte self-funder candidates.

Last time I checked, Congressman Tom Allen has a record to run on -- something Ricketts and Pederson lacked.

[MarkWarner08]

And you used to be a political reporter? Completely ridiculous. We all know by election day, Allen will not lose at the same margin as Pingree. Most "political reporters" seem to know that elections tighten up as the election nears.

You should be the political reporter.  We all know by Election Day, Harris had closed the gap against Bill Nelson; Kennedy had closed the gap against Klobuchar; and Ricketts had closed the gap against Ben Nelson.  Whoops, I already posted about that tonight.

If you want to insult someone, try not to say something so stupid silly.

Hhaah. Idiot...
Test v Burns
Mason Dixon December 24, 2005 35% 49%
Rasmussen September 8, 2005 38% 51%

Whitehouse v Chafee
Rhode Island College April, 2006 32% 51%
Rasmussen February 11, 2006 38% 50%
Brown University February 8, 2006 34% 40%
Brown University Sept. 13, 2005 25% 38%

Webb v Allen
Rasmussen March 28, 2006 30% 54%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 37% 49%
Rasmussen December 9, 2005 26% 57%

Carden v Steele
Rasmussen November 21, 2005 49% 41%
Baltimore Sun October 25, 2005 47% 38%

Kyl v Pederson
Rasmussen December 26, 2005 50% 30%
Arizona State University October 28, 2005 50% 28%

Ford v Corker
Rasmussen December 20, 2005 42% 36%
Global Strategy Group October 31, 2005 39% 36%

Now maybe you can go and look up the actual results and see what happened in these races. So  before you go and make an ass of yourself, go look some facts up. Any person with half a brain will know Allen won't be losing by 20%.

Conan,  while I agree with your point, I 'd like to point out that HRC just said he was being sarcastic.

Anyone else find it amusing HardRCafe has the same initials as Hillary Rodham Clinton?