Kerry won 45.5% statewide in 2004, and won 49.2% in the 11th district, performing 3.7% better.
Kaine won 51.7% statewide in 2005, and won 55.7% in the 11th, performing 4.0% better.
Webb won 49.6% statewide in 2006, and won 54.7% in the 11th, performing 5.1% better.
No, there's absolutely no indication that the 11th is trending Democratic.
At what point did I deny that the DC suburbs have been swinging towards the Democratic Party? That they have been is clearly true.
It is, however, also true that 11pts is not close and is, in fact, not even marginal. Will the Democrats have a good shot when Davis retires? Of course. Will they before then? Despite all the bluster, no.
Exactly. Tom Davis is a well-liked incumbent who plays to his district's suburban base on livability issues. Defeating him would be a task as difficult as upsetting Chet Edwards or Jim Matheson, two other examples of astute Congressman who have bucked their district's political dynamics.
The notion that the all-mighty DCCC will make a play in this district is absurd. Chris Van Hollen and co have to defend at least 10 vulnerable freshman and they have nine GOP open seats and 15 Republican incumbents who are higher on their target list than Tom Davis.
Republican incumbents who are more vulnerable than Davis:
Robin Hayes
Dave Reichert
Randy Kuhl
Jim Walsh
Sam Graves
Shelley Moore Capito
Joe Knollenberg
Tim Walberg
Jon Porter
John Doolittle
Chris Shays
Mark Kirk
Mike Ferguson
Phil English
Don Young
In Davis’ vulnerability range:
Michelle Bachmann
Thelma Drake
Jim Saxton
Tom Reynolds
Ric Keller
Steve Chabot
Thad McCotter
C.W. Young
Tim Murphy
Barbara Cubin
Jean Schmidt
Marilyn Musgrave
Tim Murphy
Charlie Dent
Jim Gerlach
