How many seats...

[MarkWarner08]

If the election were today, there is no doubt I would place Oregon much, much lower.

Wise call.

The Democratic primary is turning into a nasty fight. The underdog, a liberal lawyer/grassroots activist, just outraised the "establishment candidate," Speaker Jeff Merkley.  The underdog recently sent out an inflammatory press release that chided Merkley for his poor fundraising perfromance.

Adding to the Democratic woes is Independent John Frohnnmeyer's aggressively pro-impeachment rhetoric. The Independent candidate is forcing the Democrats even further to the left, a position that wins them votes in Portland and Eugene, but not in the crucial suburban counties.

The one glimmer of hope for Democrats is Smith's soft support among Republicans. Public opinion polls have shown that Smith's approval among Democrats is on par with his GOP approval ratings. Once the Democrats go negative, Smith's favorables with Dems will surely drop. If a conservative third party candidate jumps into the race, Smith may struggle to break 45% of the vote.

[MarkWarner08]

If the election were today, there is no doubt I would place Oregon much, much lower.

Wise call.

The Democratic primary is turning into a nasty fight. The underdog, a liberal lawyer/grassroots activist, just outraised the "establishment candidate," Speaker Jeff Merkley.  The underdog recently sent out an inflammatory press release that chided Merkley for his poor fundraising perfromance.

How does that work, exactly? Merkley raised over twice what Novick raised, and the majority of that was in the month of September alone. Novick has a few thousand more on hand, but I don't see how he could be gloating about that, considering he's been in the race since, like, April.

You're looking at the fundraising race from a logical perspective. Less rational folks (ie primary voters) tend to be more influenced by non fact based arguments. Novick's campaign is saying that since Merkely is the "Washington candidate" backed by the "nefarious" DSCC, he should be crushing Novick in the cash chase. Since Novick maintains a COH lead, albeit quite narrow, they are claiming an early victory.

[MarkWarner08]

NH, MN, VA, NM, ME, CO, OR, NE are all possible, but maybe 4 or 5

minus LA

So I think its a net gain of 3 or 4 at least.

It's not over in LA. There are some rumblings down in the Bayou that Kennedy may face a few challengers from the right. Don't be surprised if Mary Landreiu wins w/o a runoff.