Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05

[MarkWarner08]

Cook Political Report has made a rare move: they're moving MA-05 two categories from Solid Dem to Leans Dem. David Wasserman of the Report says the following:

"So why in the world could this race be close?

It is possible to view the race in any number of lights, but it is hard to deny that voters in the district are angry at Washington for a variety of reasons ...snip...

Then, there are race-specific factors at work. Surely, there are a handful of Democrats who still harbor bitter feelings from the closely contested primary and may not get behind her in the general. Local operatives, however, point to a larger image problem for Tsongas, stemming from her desire to transition from a community college position with a somewhat opaque title to Congress. For years, Massachusetts voters have endured numerous scandals and controversies involving highly politically-involved university officials: the names Bulger and Silber come to mind. As Tsongas seeks to follow in the footsteps of an outgoing congressman who left to become chancellor of the district's largest university, she must be wary of the perception that there is a revolving door between higher education and public office and that public institutions conceal featherbedding operations for politicians in the state."


Ognowski has the "big mo" because of the emotional factor (he lost his brother on 9/11), the fratricidal factor (most of Tsongas foes are still bitter),  macro factors (Washington D.C's extremely unpopular right now), micro factors (Mr. Moderate and others have already outlined these), and demographic factors (this is Bush's second best Massachusetts district; Kerry only won 57% here).

I'm moving this race to my "Slightly Leaning Democrat" category.  Massachusetts has a history of close special elections --- Democrat John Olver eked out a win nearly two decades agao in a similarly low turnout election.

When the Democrats call in Bill Clinton for a rally (see: Ciro's stunning win), it's clear the Democrat is surging. When the National Democrats call in Bill Clinton for a late fundraiser/pep talk, it's clear the Democrat is sinking.

Current prediction: Tsongas: 50%
                              Ognowski: 47%
                              Other: 3%

[MarkWarner08]

If you're PO'd at the elites over Iraq, how does it make sense to elect a Republican?

I'm searching for some historical precedent for this kind of outcome. But I'm pretty sure that there have been past special elections in which the winning candidate represented the party that was unpopular at the time.

If I were Tsongas, I'd run solely on the War in Iraq. If she can aggressively differentiate her position on that and then pull a Connie Morella on Ognowski by tying him to the Southern conservatives in the GOP, then she'll be on much more favorable ground.

[MarkWarner08]

I think Tsongas wins it by 52%-43%.  She will be saved by her 66%-29% margin in the Lowell/Lawrence area, where Democrats should be working to turn out every Democrat, while losing the rest of the district 44%-51%.  She will underperform badly in some areas.  For example, she will lose Dracut, Ogonowski's home area which John Kerry carried 52%-47% by 38%-56%.   She will also lose Tewksbury, which carry also won by 35%-61%.  After this, Tsongas is unlikely to be seriously challenged for the seat. 

Wow. Those are some precise predictions. Seriously, if Tsongas indeed wins by 52%-43%, you should be awarded the prognosticator of the century trophy.

[MarkWarner08]

If you're PO'd at the elites over Iraq, how does it make sense to elect a Republican?

I'm searching for some historical precedent for this kind of outcome. But I'm pretty sure that there have been past special elections in which the winning candidate represented the party that was unpopular at the time.

If I were Tsongas, I'd run solely on the War in Iraq. If she can aggressively differentiate her position on that and then pull a Connie Morella on Ognowski by tying him to the Southern conservatives in the GOP, then she'll be on much more favorable ground.

The problem is that Tsongas isn't anti-war enough to run solely on Iraq.  Truth is, Ogonowski opposes the war too, and there's not much ground there to differentiate herself in a way that'll move votes.

No doubt that Tsongas would love to tie Ognowski to the Southern GOP leadership, but the Southern GOP leadership isn't relevant in the House anymore.  That's part of the irony—if Democrats hadn't picked up the House last year, Republicans couldn't even play in this special election.

They would be if they won back the House. 

Actually, Boehner and Blunt, the numero uno and numero dos men in the GOP leadership are from the Midwest. The days of Newt Gingrich and Tom DeLay in charge have passed.

[MarkWarner08]

If you're PO'd at the elites over Iraq, how does it make sense to elect a Republican?

I'm searching for some historical precedent for this kind of outcome. But I'm pretty sure that there have been past special elections in which the winning candidate represented the party that was unpopular at the time.

If I were Tsongas, I'd run solely on the War in Iraq. If she can aggressively differentiate her position on that and then pull a Connie Morella on Ognowski by tying him to the Southern conservatives in the GOP, then she'll be on much more favorable ground.

The problem is that Tsongas isn't anti-war enough to run solely on Iraq.  Truth is, Ogonowski opposes the war too, and there's not much ground there to differentiate herself in a way that'll move votes.

No doubt that Tsongas would love to tie Ognowski to the Southern GOP leadership, but the Southern GOP leadership isn't relevant in the House anymore.  That's part of the irony—if Democrats hadn't picked up the House last year, Republicans couldn't even play in this special election.

Quite a delicious irony for Republicans. Why do you think Tsongas can't pivot leftward on the War? She has no voting record or past statements on the issue, right?

[MarkWarner08]

Cook was lazy for putting it in Solid Dem anyway after the primary.  Should have been Likely Dem.  Then again, he's always kind of lazy.

When exactly is this election anyway?  I haven't been following it that closely.

If by "lazy," you mean methodical and cautious, then I agree. BTW, David Wasserman has now replaced Amy Walter as the House race editor.