NJ-3: Adler Announces Against Saxton (user search)
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  NJ-3: Adler Announces Against Saxton (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ-3: Adler Announces Against Saxton  (Read 2292 times)
MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,812


« on: September 20, 2007, 10:04:35 PM »

This races looks like a non-starter.  Saxton is relatively popular in the district, votes well enough not anger liberal interest groups and has loads of political capital. If there's a Democratic wave in 2008, this race could be worth watching, otherwise, Adler will probably win around 45%.
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MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,812


« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2007, 10:28:33 PM »

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.

I don't know how much credit you can give him for "superb handling" when his opponent imploded well before Election Day.

Given how many candidates wind up imploding with very little prodding, it is indeed a feat for a candidate to run an error-free campaign.

You also must remember that 2000 was a very pro-incumbent environment, which helped Saxton tremendously.  We are not likely to see that in 2008. 

It wasn't that pro-incumbent.  Plenty of seats flipped, especially in California.

That's a funny line. The ONLY place the GOP lost (not counting the Bill Clinton related defeated of Jay Dickey) House seats in 2000 was California.

To say "plenty of seats flipped" is disingenuous, unless you define plenty to be one Democratic leaning seat in Arkansas. There were actually more GOP House pickups in 2000 than Democratic House pickups outside California.
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