Road to 60

[MarkWarner08]

Here's how the Democrats could reach 60 Senate seats:

1. Hold Lousiana and South Dakota
2. Win the GOP open seats" Colorado, Virginia, and Nebraska.
3. Pick off the GOP Senators in blue states such as Oregon, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire
4. Beat at least 2 of the following GOP incumbents: Mitch McConnell, John Cornyn, Lamar Alexander, and Liddy Dole.
5. Hope Ted Stevens or Pete Domenici retire or receive strong challenges.
6. Pray Jim Inhofe or Saxby Chambliss has a macaca moment.

Up 15 of the GOP's 22 Senate seats up for reelection this cycle could be competitive. If the Democrats can take strong leads in the 7 open seats or blue state seats, they can refocus their energies to defeating three of the eight red state Republican senators who are in varying degrees of trouble.


This scenario, if it occurred, would create the first opportunity since 1976 for one of the two major parties to have full governing power. This would place a massive level of responsibility on the Democratic party. If the Democrats fail 1992-1994 style, expect the GOP could be reborn in 2010.

On the other hand, if Democrats pass a series of popular reforms, the Democrats could take advantage of the GOP's strong 2004 Senate cycle to cement the Democratic majority in the Senate. One other thing about 2010. If the Democrats can hold onto their 2006 gains and possible 2008 gains in that election, then the Democrats will likely control the redistricting process in states like Michigan and Ohio, thus giving the Democrats a huge leg up for the 2010's.

[MarkWarner08]

I think you're being unrealistic. We're definately going to gain a few seats, but I don't see how nine is within reach. From your list, 4, 5, and 6 are exceedingly unlikely. I think Louisiana is going to switch to the Republicans as well.

I'm just showing a scenario in which the Democrats could reach 60 in the Senate. This is of course contingent on a strong nominee (read: not Hillary), a downturn in the economy, the war malaise continuing, and Bush's approvals staying in Nixonland. If all those factors occur, I don't think this scenario is unrealistic.

It's also possibility that significant progress is made in Iraq, Bush's approvals rise to the low 40's, the GOP nominate Giuliani or Romney and runs an anti-Washington campaign, the Democratic Congress continues to alienate its base, Hillary runs a play-it-safe campaign, Johnson decides against reelection and Landrieu faces off against Kennedy.

Basically, it's impossible to tell this far out what the conditions will be like come October 2008.  Even in September 2006 (before Foley), most people would've thought it absurd that  Democrats would win races like KY-03, where the Democrats were saddled with a fourth tier candidate.

[MarkWarner08]

...Then we can really reform this country and fully undo the excesses of the Bush and Reagan administrations.

This is the wishful thinking part, not the 57 or 60 seats.  If they ever have a dominant position again, that is when the real right-wing nature of the Democratic Party will be revealed.  I.E. no significant change in the american economic system.

The last time the Democrats had a huge majority and a Democratic president, we got the New Deal and the Great Society. Hardly right-wing.

Those were great achievements, but the actually 1976 was the last year the Democrats had a huge House majority, 60 Senators, and a Democratic Party. Sadly, little was a achieved legislatively because Carter was arrogant in his relations with Congressional leaders.