How many Democratic House freshmen are vulnerable in 2008?

[MarkWarner08]

The DCCC's decision not to help Gary Trauner and Vic Wulsin may have looked like a short term blunder, but it could be a wise decision in the long term.

Trauner and Wulsin would both have been up for reelection in a Presidential election year in districts that went 60%+ for Bush in 2004. Those races would have cost the Democrats a fortune to hold and they would likely have lost them anyways.

The list of 29 pickups features only 5 really vulnerable freshman. If Rob Simmons or Jeb Bradley run,  Joe Courtney and Carol Shea-Porter go back on this list.

1. Nick Lampson: He's gone

2. Nancy Boyda: She could become a savvy lawmaker who survives several close reelection because of her moderate bona fides and eventually become entrenched (ie Dennis Moore). Another possibility is she's taken out by whoever wins the GOP primay.  As Thomas Frank taught us, nothing is so fierce as a Mod vs. Con internecine battle

3.  Tim Mahoney: He only beat Mark Foley by 2%. 'nuff said. If the GOP nominates a good candidate, the fun's over for Mahoney.

4. Jerry McNerney. Has the 11th swung Democratic enough for a liberal  hero of the enviros to win in a Presidential year? This race all depends on the NRCC's candidate recruitment.

5. Jason Altmire. Candidate recruitment, candidate recruitment,  candidate recruitment. The reason Melissa Hart held the 4th district for 6 years was because Democrats nominated people like Steven Drobac.

I'm convinced the difference between Gerlach's 50.6% and Fitzgerald's 49.7% was the extra term Gerlach had to bring in the pork. The GOP will never have as good a shot at beating Altmire.

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

[MarkWarner08]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

The 2nd is just too conservative for a Democrat to win. The 1st is a 51/49 GOP district that I think Walz will be able to hold until the next wave election.

[MarkWarner08]

You don't think that Shea-Porter is vulnerable?

Hodes should be pretty safe o/c.

The Democrats were very lucky in 2006, IMHO. Their upset winners were in heavily or leaning Democratic districts such as IA-02 and NH-01. I just can't think of any credible candidates who could beat Shea-Porter. She's a very likable woman whose average qualities are very endearing to voters. Unless Jeb Bradley win again. she's safe until she retires.

[MarkWarner08]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

The 2nd is just too conservative for a Democrat to win. The 1st is a 51/49 GOP district that I think Walz will be able to hold until the next wave election.

It's a 54-45 Bush district. We won plenty of seats similar to that.

Walz is most likely safe, mostly because the GOP doesn't have much of a bench here. Both the leaders of the GOP Senate and House caucuses live in the district, but both are also extremely unpopular outside of their own seats.

I meant the 6th is too conservative. The 6th gave Bush 57%, which was 10% over his statewide average. Kline is good fit for the district. His military  credentials and moderate to conservative voting record will help him in this GOP leaning district. Bachmann sadly is likely safe in her Distritct too.

[MarkWarner08]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

The 2nd is just too conservative for a Democrat to win. The 1st is a 51/49 GOP district that I think Walz will be able to hold until the next wave election.

It's a 54-45 Bush district. We won plenty of seats similar to that.

Walz is most likely safe, mostly because the GOP doesn't have much of a bench here. Both the leaders of the GOP Senate and House caucuses live in the district, but both are also extremely unpopular outside of their own seats.

I meant the 6th is too conservative. The 6th gave Bush 57%, which was 10% over his statewide average. Kline is good fit for the district. His military  credentials and moderate to conservative voting record will help him in this GOP leaning district. Bachmann sadly is likely safe in her Distritct too.

You're right Kline would be favored, but a much stronger opponent could've rode the wave to victory (and Kline doesn't have anything moderate at all I could think of).

What you say about the 6th district would probably be true if we were talking about a sane Republican, but Bachmann is not such a Republican. And note that it is less Republican than OH-2.

Bachmann is more media savvy and less insane than Schmidt. Bachmann also doesn't look like an angry scarecrow.

[MarkWarner08]

Peter Roskam and Mark Kirk would be vulnerable if Barack Obama is on the Democratic ticket. 

Depends on if Ceglis and Seals run.

[MarkWarner08]

What about New York? All three won in districts that are still tradtionally Republican.

Arcuri should still be safe (though both him and Gillibrand benefited heavily from looks), but I'm not sure about the others.

Gillibrand and Hall are both safe unless the GOP picks good nominees. Watch Hall, if he votes like he's from San Fran, he'll be a one termer.

[MarkWarner08]

Later today I'll write a little bit about Carney, Kagen, Shea-Porter, Hall, Space and Gillibrand.