MO: The Swing State that swings the Senate?

[MarkWarner08]

This is the state where the wave will be felt. Missouri, not Ohio is the true beltweather and measure of America. Missouri has vibrant cities, sprawling suburbs and thriving exurbs. The state voted Democrat for the Senate in 2000 and Republican for President. It moved right after 9/11 and Bush increased his margin by the exact amoing he did nationally.

Democrats have lost the past four Governor and Senate race by a margin of 49.3% to 49.1% -- the closest such margin in the country. Sensing the tightness of the contest, the NRSC has already spent $2 million on vitriolic attacks against Claire McCaskill. Soon the NRA will jump into the race -- on the be countered by a myriad of liberal special interest groups.

The race is also shadowed by the wedge issues-- hallmarks of modern political warfare. Senator Talent's camp has attacked McCaskill on gun control in an attempt to weaken her support among male union members. McCaskill has responded in kind by coming out in favor of the state's Stem Cell research ballot initiative. This was a calculated move to force Talent to choose between his economic conservative base and his sociall conservative supporters; he sided with the social conservatives.

Mark Foley is playing big in Missouri, but not in the way many observers expected.  Foley's biggest impact has not been in dampening  Talent's Christian conservative support.

What the fallout from the Foley fiasco did was to reverse the momentum the GOP built from their successful "Security September." This past week could have been about falling gas prices, the record finish of the Dow Jones and the resurgent U.S economy--- instead it was about whether Denny Hastert should resign.

[MarkWarner08]

This race is going to be won or lost in Saint Louis County. If McCaskill can get 60% here (Kerry won 54), the race is hers.

This race and the race in Tennessee are the two pure "toss-ups."  Democrats are barely up in both today -- but who knows about tomorrow.

[MarkWarner08]

This race is going to be won or lost in Saint Louis County. If McCaskill can get 60% here (Kerry won 54), the race is hers.

This race and the race in Tennessee are the two pure "toss-ups."  Democrats are barely up in both today -- but who knows about tomorrow.

You're right about NJ. I think RI is now slightly leaning Democratic.

I agree these two are pure toss-ups. I would add New Jersey and Rhode Island as well.

[MarkWarner08]

I think the Dems will win one or both of TN or MO not both. And tie the senate, the GOP should maintain control.

Quincy, it all depends on which side has the slightest breeze on Election Day. If Al Gor had had one more week to campaign in 2000, he likely would of won in Florida.