Current election predictions

[super6646]

Assuming Trump's approval rating bumps up to around 40%....

Democrat: 349
Trump: 189

The toss-ups here will be Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.

I just do not envision any scenario at this time where Trump can win Michigan again.  Pennsylvania is probably gone for him too.  I can see him winning Wisconsin again, but I can also see him losing it just as easily.

Texas could be close, depending on the Democratic nominee.  Demographics there are trending blue.  But I don't think 2020 will be the year for it to flip, though it quite possibly could, especially if Trump continues to tank.  Same with Georgia, except I do think it's very likely to flip in 2020.

North Carolina and Arizona, I believe, are not going to be good states for the president.  NC will be friendlier territory, IMO, but I don't think he's going to be a favorite in either state come 2020.

Florida remains a battleground, as always.  C'mon, Florida, get your act together.



Now, if Trump's approval hovers at the current 36-ish% or drops to around 30%....

Democrat: 413
Trump: 125

Toss-ups: Texas, South Carolina, Nebraska CD-2, Maine CD-2, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida.  It should be noted, even if he were to win every single one of these, he'd still lose the election.  In other words, 30-36% approval means he's going to lose; he cannot win with approval like that.



Should his approval dip below 30%....

Democrat: 437
Trump: 101

Battlegound Alaska, Indiana, South Carolina, Nebraska CD-1, Missouri, Mississippi, and possibly Utah and Kansas.

Someone is living in la la land.

[super6646]