🇩🇪 Germany: ⬛️ CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for 2021

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Who do you think will become the Union's (CDU+CSU) chancellor candidate for the federal election on September 26, 2021?

The newly-elected party chairman Armin Laschet, Governor of North Rhine-Westfalia?
Or deputy chairman and Health Minister Jens Spahn, who hasn't officially thrown his hat into the ring yet, but who is reported to nurse a driving ambition of succeeding Merkel?
Or Bavarian Governor Markus Söder, who has been staying tight-lipped over his ambitions of becoming despot chancelor of the whole of Germany?

Note: It's a tradition, but no statutory or binding obligation that the Union's chancellor candidate has to be the CDU or CSU chair.

Here's the latest poll about the favorability of the potential chancellor candidates of the Union parties (without Spahn, alas):

All voters:



CDU voters:

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Bonus question: Providing Markus Söder becomes the Union's chancellor candidate (provided he tosses his hat into the ring) and hence Chancellor of Germany, which seems extremely likely right now, who do you think will succeed him to his throne as Bavarian despot Governor?

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Bonus question: Providing Markus Söder becomes the Union's chancellor candidate (provided he tosses his hat into the ring) and hence Chancellor of Germany, which seems extremely likely right now, who do you think will succeed him to his throne as Bavarian despot Governor?

?

Yes, Ilse Aigner is one of three people who instantly come into my mind for Söder's succession.
I wonder if Dr. Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg still has a political future in Bavaria.

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I found a funny, but dead-on post in the comment section of SPON:

"If the delegates voted for Laschet only in order to thwart Merz's political ambitions, they have thereby simultaneously thrown him to Söder. To put it as harmlessly as possible." 🤣🤣🤣

But in all seriousness, it would have been awesome to see Merz and Söder carry out some endless mudslinging against each other. 😅

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The SPD is 100% done with the "grand" coalition. It won't happen again, especially now that Greens are strong enough for a two party coalition with the Union.

The crucial question is: Would the SPD be willing to form a Kenya/Afghanistan coalition?
Now that we are about to be menaced by a rigid federal lockdown, and considering despot Governor Söder is known and feared for the harshest lockdown measures throughout Germany, both the AfD and the FDP are going to face a major boost, thus thwarting a Union-SPD majority for the first time in the history of the FRG.

Even Söder has lately shifted towards more environmentalist policies in Bavaria.

And that's a crucial point; Laschet is staunchly pro-coal on local and traditional grounds, whereas Söder recognized the Greens as the CSU's most redoubtable political opponent.

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Hopefully Merkel again

No, she is 100 % retiring. She didn't file a candidacy in her own district.

Probably a stupid question but just in general, does the Chancellor have to be a member of the Bundestag (like in Britain, where ministers have to be MPs or Lords), or is that just a constitutional convention?

No. All but one were however members of the Bundestag during their chancellorship.
Only exception: Kurt Georg Kiesinger, CDU (1966-69).

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FWIW:

They don't have to be (in some states such as only in NRW that's the case. Ironically in 2017 Laschet almost failed to win his district - That could've prevented him from becoming Governor in theory, but I guess another Landtag Member would've just resigned so he could assume the office...).

In 2005, there was some discussion going on among pundits about whether Steinbrück could win his constituency Unna III – Hamm II, because they thought owing to the prospective overhang seats he weren't going to gain a seat in the Landtag without a direct mandate, thus not being constitutionally electable as Minister President as a result. He did manage to win it by a wide margin, but in the end it didn't really matter...

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Selfless Merz refused the offer for a seat in the party executive committee because he would have prevented a woman from occupying that post. Isn't he altruistic?

Friedrich Merz has - as altruistic as he is - instead proposed himself to his newly-elected party chairman as a potential applicant for the Ministry of Economy, currently held by Merkel's "adlatus" Peter Altmaier; but his deadly foe Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, instantly declined his selfless devotion, stating she doesn't intend reshuffling her cabinet...

This was one of the dumbest moves by Merz. However, he revealed his true colors and that not electing him leader was the correct decision. I hope he goes back to Black Rock, where "Mr. Upper Middle Class" belongs.

I wonder if he will be offered his second-most desired post, the office of Finance Minister, after that unnecessary Trumpish action.

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Poll: Would ... be a capable chancellor? Yes/No.

All voters:



CDU/CSU voters only:

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Looks like Laschet is getting less popular since he was elected. Is that because of something pandemic related or just people getting to know him and not liking what they see? Could it give Spahn a chance as the "Stop Söder" candidate?

Laschet hasn't really gotten more unpopular; he simply isn't chancellor-esque material. With his cute smile and his funny Westphalian accent he could act as the Prince of a Cologne Carnival procession, but barely anyone could imagine him sitting at the bargaining table along with Biden, Putin, Xi and other European leaders.

Has Söder said publicly he wants to become Chancellor, or is there still a chance he prefers to stay in Munich?

He is going to disclose the mystery relating to the K-question after the state elections in March. I'll doubt he's going to stay in Munich. He has been having chancellor ambitions for almost two decades now, and if he doesn't fulfill his burning ambition now, it will probably have been frustrated forever. It's comparable to the situation the Democrats saw themselves prior to the last presidential election; the number of Democratic contenders was so huge because the upcoming election was perceived as easily winnable for them; and the next federal election will be pivotal for Söder - with the crucial difference compared with presidential elections in the US that there isn't even a term limit for chancellors. If not now, then never.

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I think Spahn has no chance, given how medicore he has handled the pandemic now. It's no just the vaccination mess, Merkel also intervened on his testing strategy (something that, according to observers, would lead to a minister's resignation in normal times). He's currently also under fire for hosting a dinner with business leaders a few months ago, just before he himself was tested positive for the virus. He definitely wants the top-job, but I think he's not up to it.

Plus, his public relations work is also detrimental to him when it comes to his purchase of Richard Grenell's former luxury villa in Berlin's upscale district of Dahlem. You oughtn't sue the media or issue a warning to several small Youtubers if you want to become chancellor...

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If neither Laschet nor Spahn are serious contenders does that mean that there is no credible alternative to Söder, or is there someone else the CDU could field as a "Stop Söder" candidate?

No. Söder is the inevitable candidate and chancellor, and a looooong winter is coming...

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There are also plenty of other CDU politicians who could possibly mount a challenge (e.g., Daniel Günther). Their biggest problem would be that they lack the national profile of Söder/Laschet/Spahn.

Kretschmer from Saxony and Günther from S-H would be good compromise candidates.

But here the question arises why anyone but Söder should run for the chancellor's office?
He is in the lead by huge margins in every single poll. The people obviously want him to become chancellor (for whatever reasons). Moreover, he will be, unlike Armin, able to keep the AfD's numbers significantly down. Even if Söder decides to troll us all, why should anybody else than Laschet become Merkel's successor? He is the other party chairman, and he is the Governor of the most populous state by far. Why should Governors from small states spell him? (I would see the advantage of Kretschmer's candidacy, though.)

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I assume it's beyond any reasonable doubt that Söder is going to be the "laughing third party" after today's state elections? (I can't find an adequate translation in my dictionary.)

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3) Because there were no real expectations to win in either BW or RLP. These elections will be forgotten in a week or two.

Sorry what? Baldauf's CDU was almost continuously leading in the polls from December 2016 through to February 2021.

In BW, the Eisenmann's CDU were indeed almost consistently trailing the Greens, but they were always on the edge of catching up with them, which sometimes even happened.

Aside from all of this, it is not even clear if Söder wants to become Chancellor in the first place. Or if he has any other ambitions beyond Bavaria.

How come you're the only one who thinks Söder doesn't nurse any ambition of becoming chancellor? When should he, if not now? It's like a Democrat with presidential ambitions refusing to run for president in 2020.

I know you're a big fan of Spahn, but he still has much time to realize his lifetime's ambition, but Söder is already 52 years old; his "biological clock" is ticking. And keep in mind that he used to be an environment minister, so he will be able to show your Greens some understanding for their first-world problems (for example as to the bee deaths).

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According to this article there is now increased support in the East German state associations, in the south-west, in Hamburg and in the business union that "Laschet should be advised to renounce the candidacy in favor of Söder by Easter."

It also says Söder is "the secret candidate of the Merz half of the party".

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/politik_person_der_woche/Drei-Gruende-fuer-Soeder-als-Kanzlerkandidat-article22427912.html

The poll about the "K-Frage" says it all:

37% Söder | 18% Habeck | 15% Scholz

22% Laschet | 21% Habeck | 20% Scholz

The Union would be stupid if they nominated Laschet, who had better renounce his candidacy in order to avert any damage to his party.

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According to this article there is now increased support in the East German state associations, in the south-west, in Hamburg and in the business union that "Laschet should be advised to renounce the candidacy in favor of Söder by Easter."

It also says Söder is "the secret candidate of the Merz half of the party".

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/politik_person_der_woche/Drei-Gruende-fuer-Soeder-als-Kanzlerkandidat-article22427912.html

The poll about the "K-Frage" says it all:

37% Söder | 18% Habeck | 15% Scholz

22% Laschet | 21% Habeck | 20% Scholz

The Union would be stupid if they nominated Laschet, who had better renounce his candidacy in order to avert any damage to his party.

How much will the accusations against Alfred Sauter hurt Söder's chances?

Do you mean in the general or in the "primary"?

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How much will the accusations against Alfred Sauter hurt Söder's chances?

Do you mean in the general or in the "primary"?

The latter.

Not at all. For every CSU politician that is involved in the mask scandal, there is a CDU counterpart who offsets the misdemeanors committed by their Bavarian brethren.
Plus, Laschet himself has a familially-involved mask scandal.

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Favorability Ratings

All voters



CDU/CSU voters

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Jens Spahn is now involved in the omnipresent mask scandal, too: His health ministry purchased 570,000 FFP2 masks from Burda LLC without required tendering procedure.
The crux: His husband, Daniel Funke, works as a lobbyist and as the supervisor of the Burda representative office in Berlin.
This is already the couple's second scandal after their purchase of Richard Grenell's former luxury villa in Berlin's upscale district of Dahlem.

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I don't know enough about German politics to answer that, hopefully one of the German posters can.

That would be a first, since parties have always elected their chancellor candidate by their public favorability. It would be an interesting and revealing experiment for psephologists.
The Union is still likely to emerge as the most successful parties after the election with Laschet on the top of their ticket, but he wouldn't nearly be as successful at gathering votes as Söder.
Keep in mind that, unlike in the US, the chancellor and the Bundestag members are elected separately; the number seat for a party (particularly for the big ones) is pegged to the favorability of the Spitzenkandidat. Therefore, the probability for a Bundestag candidate of winning a seat is decreasing the less electable the Spitzenkandidat is.

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How much does this matter?

RIP in peace, Armin Laschet

https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1376269886465449986

It would be much more menacing for Laschet if Merkel had publicly placed her fullest trust in him.

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Jens Spahn is now involved in the omnipresent mask scandal, too: His health ministry purchased 570,000 FFP2 masks from Burda LLC without required tendering procedure.
The crux: His husband, Daniel Funke, works as a lobbyist and as the supervisor of the Burda representative office in Berlin.
This is already the couple's second scandal after their purchase of Richard Grenell's former luxury villa in Berlin's upscale district of Dahlem.

Is trump that hated that then buying gernell home considered a scandal or did they use state funds for it or something?

Of course not, but Spahn demanded a declaration to cease and desist with penalty clause from numerous journalists and even from several small YouTubers who divulged the seven-digit purchase price.

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According to a Bild am Sonntag interview, Söder proposes that Merkel be involved in the decision on the nomination of the joint chancellor candidate, because no candidate could be successfully canvassing for votes without her endorsement.
Unlike his party colleague and predecessor, Federal Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, he prefers that CDU and CSU ought to take time with the nomination.

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According to a Bild am Sonntag interview, Söder proposes that Merkel be involved in the decision on the nomination of the joint chancellor candidate, because no candidate could be successfully canvassing for votes without her endorsement.

So what does that mean? That Söder thinks Merkel has given up on Laschet, or that Söder doesn't want to be the candidate after all?

Probably the former; Söder is aware of the fact that many CDU politicians are quite skeptical of their sister party. However, he is also aware of the fact that Merkel seconds Söder's authoritarian handling of his strict and uncompromising lockdown policies, while clearly holding reservations against Laschet's laissez-faire attitude regarding his own anti-Corona policies.