Florida and Ohio

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What are the odds that a Democrat (presumably Warren) wins the election while losing Ohio and Florida?
I still consider the latter a swing state, which however is a too perfect fit for Trump, whereas Ohio is becoming the new Alabama, which is gone for the Democrats for the next decades.
Which states would become the new bellwether? New Mexico and Nevada?

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This is my prediction for now. (Right now it seems reasonable to assume that Warren will choose Bullock as her running mate, hence Montana being blue.)

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As to your second question, I don't think NM or NV will ever be bellwethers.

FL will be a bellwether, in both the short and long term, I believe.

Long long term, (not this decade or maybe even the next, but eventually), I think TX could become a bellwether.  

New Mexico is already a bellwether, at least in terms of the popular vote; it has only voted once for the PV loser since it gained statehood. And if Florida votes for Trump again, even though Warren wins the presidency, it's hard to tell if it can still be called a bellwether.

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This would be the most minimalist pattern for the Democrats to win without FL nor OH:

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In the "minimalist" map I posted the best bellwether states would be Michigan and Pennsylvania, since they would have voted for the overall winner since 2008.