I think WI will be close, there is an argument it is easier to flip for Trump though which is that there is more ground to gain among non college whites. In WI Trump won them by 11%, 55-44, in MI his margin was 17% and in PA it was 23%. Mathematically gaining with non college whites is the easiest in WI out of the 3 states.
Trump won non college whites by 17% in Iowa, if non college whites in Wisconsin become like those in Iowa, he will win the state.
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=IA
