Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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Now anyone can be an "elite" Russian soldier in only three weeks!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1537504376604004352

Rob Lee is just straight up misrepresenting the post, he's basically lying here, if you google translate it says at the beginning veterans have requested for this so 3 month contracts have been approved, those who want to sign up have to go through a selection committee first and then they do their 3 weeks of training, for veterans 3 weeks as a refresher course might be enough.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/russia-risks-bigger-longer-sanctions-hit-internal-report-warns

"Russia Risks Bigger Sanctions Hit, Internal Report Warns"

Bloomberg says it got an internal Russian report that indicated that the road to Russian recovery will be arduous.

The report says that while the "Target" scenario in the chart below is possible the "Inertial" scenario is more likely with a chance of a disastrous "Stress" scenario.  All 3 scenarios assume that the war will go on indefinitely and that the sanctions are here to stay and could grow.  Everything, it seems, comes how to how quickly Russia can shift its exports away from the collective West.


Certainly, most of the Western investment banking GDP projections for 2022 and 2023 tend to align with the "Inertial" scenario.  It certainly makes sense for the Russian government to plan on that taking place versus the rosy and ideal "Target" scenario which I think Russia will be lucky and unlikely to hit.

Looking at this report now with Russia's GDP contraction in 2022 at -2.1% (and that is AFTER a large upward adjustment of Russia's 2021 GDP which artificially increases the base where 2022 will be compared against) and 2023 now expected to be positive territory the Russia economic path is now going to be above the "Target" or best case scenario and way above any default or worst-case scenario laid out in the Sept 2022 Russia report that Bloomberg claimed they got a hold of. 

Russian GDP grew 5.4% in May which means it is already above May 2021 since it fell by 4.3% in May of 2022, means Russian GDP has already begun to exceed 2021 levels. https://tass.com/economy/1640037

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Governing constraint for both sides in this war is manpower, neither side is going to run out of any other resource for continuing the war, hence why its in Ukraine's interest to try and win sooner rather than later, net manpower flows will eventually turn negative for the Ukrainian military at which point it will begin to contract in size which will allow Russian forces to push forward and occupy the country, only question is how many years away that point is, perhaps 3-4.

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The fact Russia is 81% ethnic Russian, which is a higher share than the proportion of England that is ethnic English for example gives it an internal unity that the USSR which was only 51% ethnic Russian lacked. Russia today for the first time in many centuries is basically a homogenous nation with over 80% of the population belonging to a single ethnic group, that gives it a level of stability that was lacking in the past.

As for Russian tolerance of casualties, unlike Vietnam or Afghanistan, Russia unlike the US or USSR is not trying to prop up a puppet regime in a foreign land with a different culture. Russia is fighting as many Russians see it to take back the land and cities where Russian civilisation began 1200 years ago like Kiev, if you believe you are fighting to take back the heartland of your civilisation, any level of losses is acceptable.